2026 College Football Win Total Predictions: All 138 Teams
What am I looking at?
This is our predicted win total for every rated FBS team in 2026, next to the number the sportsbooks posted. The prediction is the EL Preseason Rating v1, our own composite built from five components in the Edge Labs database: last season's performance, four years of blue chip recruiting, returning production, transfer class quality, and coaching continuity. The rating walks each team's actual 2026 schedule game by game and sums the win probabilities into expected wins. Before it priced anything it was tested on two held out seasons, where it missed real win totals by 1.88 wins on average against 1.97 for a rating built on last season alone.
There are 138 FBS teams in 2026. We rate the 136 with FBS-comparable history; North Dakota State and Sacramento State moved up from the FCS this season, so they appear at the bottom of the table with their posted market lines and no model number until they build FBS data.
The names at the top will not surprise anyone. Ohio State holds the No. 1 rating, with Georgia, Oregon, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame behind it, and Notre Dame carries the highest expected wins on the table at 10.83 against a posted 11.5. The table earns its keep in the disagreements. Oklahoma State is the widest gap on the board: the market hung 6.5 wins and our number comes back 3.01. UCLA reads 3.61 against a 6.5. On the other side, North Texas walks its schedule to 7.51 wins on a 5.5 line, and Boise State comes back 6.18 against the 8.5 the books posted on the name.
A gap is a lean, not a guarantee, and a gap smaller than about a win is noise against the model's own 1.88 win error. The 7 leans that clear our error bar by two full wins, with the full case and the price behind each one, live on the futures board. The rating itself, with the talent layer under it, is at power ratings.
Every team · our number vs the market line
Our numbers: the EL Preseason Rating v1 (season 2026). Market lines: BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars via the VegasInsider win totals board, captured Sep 10, 2026. This table reads the board file at request time, so a new capture shows up without a rebuild. 136 of 136 rated teams carry a captured line; gaps of a full win or more get the flag (38 teams). The two FBS newcomers sit at the bottom, lines posted, not yet rated.
| Rk | Team | Our expected wins | Market line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 10.36 | 9.5 | +0.86 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 10.83 | 11.5 | -0.67 |
| 3 | Texas A&M OVER | 9.78 | 8.5 | +1.28 |
| 4 | Miami | 10.12 | 10.5 | -0.38 |
| 5 | Oregon | 10.09 | 10.5 | -0.41 |
| 6 | Georgia | 9.93 | 10.5 | -0.57 |
| 7 | Texas UNDER | 7.78 | 9.5 | -1.72 |
| 8 | LSU UNDER | 7.19 | 9.5 | -2.31 |
| 9 | Indiana UNDER | 8.60 | 10.5 | -1.90 |
| 10 | Alabama | 7.62 | 8.5 | -0.88 |
| 11 | Ole Miss | 8.11 | 8.5 | -0.39 |
| 12 | Oklahoma | 7.59 | 8.5 | -0.91 |
| 13 | USC | 8.70 | 8.5 | +0.20 |
| 14 | Penn State | 8.57 | 9.5 | -0.93 |
| 15 | Florida | 6.61 | 7.5 | -0.89 |
| 16 | Washington | 7.95 | 8.5 | -0.55 |
| 17 | Tennessee | 7.62 | 7.5 | +0.12 |
| 18 | South Carolina | 6.64 | 6.5 | +0.14 |
| 19 | Texas Tech UNDER | 10.34 | 11.5 | -1.16 |
| 20 | Utah | 9.43 | 8.5 | +0.93 |
| 21 | Iowa | 7.73 | 7.5 | +0.23 |
| 22 | Michigan | 7.80 | 7.5 | +0.30 |
| 23 | SMU | 8.54 | 8.5 | +0.04 |
| 24 | Auburn | 6.87 | 6.5 | +0.37 |
| 25 | Nebraska | 6.25 | 6.5 | -0.25 |
| 26 | Missouri | 6.56 | 6.5 | +0.06 |
| 27 | BYU | 8.30 | 8.5 | -0.20 |
| 28 | Louisville | 7.51 | 8.5 | -0.99 |
| 29 | Florida State OVER | 7.88 | 5.5 | +2.38 |
| 30 | Clemson OVER | 8.64 | 7.5 | +1.14 |
| 31 | Pittsburgh UNDER | 7.26 | 8.5 | -1.24 |
| 32 | Virginia UNDER | 7.00 | 8.5 | -1.50 |
| 33 | Vanderbilt OVER | 6.73 | 5.5 | +1.23 |
| 34 | Arizona | 7.41 | 7.5 | -0.09 |
| 35 | Mississippi State | 4.78 | 4.5 | +0.28 |
| 36 | Boise State UNDER | 6.18 | 9.5 | -3.32 |
| 37 | Illinois | 6.84 | 6.5 | +0.34 |
| 38 | Kansas State | 7.76 | 8.5 | -0.74 |
| 39 | San Diego State | 7.60 | 7.5 | +0.10 |
| 40 | Houston | 7.86 | 8.5 | -0.64 |
| 41 | Baylor | 5.92 | 5.5 | +0.42 |
| 42 | Western Michigan | 7.51 | 7.5 | +0.01 |
| 43 | Washington State | 6.38 | 5.5 | +0.88 |
| 44 | Duke | 5.96 | 6.5 | -0.54 |
| 45 | Memphis UNDER | 7.18 | 8.5 | -1.32 |
| 46 | UTSA | 7.57 | 7.5 | +0.07 |
| 47 | Iowa State OVER | 6.61 | 4.5 | +2.11 |
| 48 | Minnesota | 5.81 | 6.5 | -0.69 |
| 49 | Wake Forest | 5.81 | 6.5 | -0.69 |
| 50 | Maryland | 5.93 | 5.5 | +0.43 |
| 51 | TCU | 6.69 | 6.5 | +0.19 |
| 52 | Army | 7.37 | 7.5 | -0.13 |
| 53 | New Mexico | 7.14 | 7.5 | -0.36 |
| 54 | Northwestern | 5.81 | 5.5 | +0.31 |
| 55 | South Florida | 7.97 | 8.5 | -0.53 |
| 56 | Georgia Tech OVER | 6.55 | 4.5 | +2.05 |
| 57 | Louisiana Tech OVER | 7.11 | 5.5 | +1.61 |
| 58 | Michigan State | 4.20 | 4.5 | -0.30 |
| 59 | Kansas | 5.99 | 5.5 | +0.49 |
| 60 | UNLV | 7.50 | 7.5 | 0.00 |
| 61 | Arizona State UNDER | 5.46 | 6.5 | -1.04 |
| 62 | Cincinnati | 5.19 | 5.5 | -0.31 |
| 63 | Kentucky | 3.62 | 4.5 | -0.88 |
| 64 | North Carolina UNDER | 4.49 | 5.5 | -1.01 |
| 65 | Navy UNDER | 6.83 | 8.5 | -1.67 |
| 66 | James Madison | 8.08 | 8.5 | -0.42 |
| 67 | Toledo OVER | 8.98 | 7.5 | +1.48 |
| 68 | North Texas OVER | 7.51 | 6.5 | +1.01 |
| 69 | UCF | 6.04 | 6.5 | -0.46 |
| 70 | Texas State | 6.13 | 6.5 | -0.37 |
| 71 | Arkansas | 3.72 | 3.5 | +0.22 |
| 72 | East Carolina | 7.57 | 7.5 | +0.07 |
| 73 | Louisiana | 7.45 | 7.5 | -0.05 |
| 74 | UCLA UNDER | 3.61 | 6.5 | -2.89 |
| 75 | Colorado | 4.73 | 4.5 | +0.23 |
| 76 | UConn OVER | 7.11 | 5.5 | +1.61 |
| 77 | Air Force | 7.59 | 7.5 | +0.09 |
| 78 | NC State | 7.35 | 6.5 | +0.85 |
| 79 | Nevada | 5.68 | 5.5 | +0.18 |
| 80 | Tulane | 6.71 | 6.5 | +0.21 |
| 81 | Old Dominion | 6.96 | 7.5 | -0.54 |
| 82 | Purdue OVER | 3.97 | 2.5 | +1.47 |
| 83 | Wisconsin UNDER | 4.74 | 6.5 | -1.76 |
| 84 | Virginia Tech UNDER | 4.47 | 7.5 | -3.03 |
| 85 | App State | 6.28 | 6.5 | -0.22 |
| 86 | Syracuse | 3.90 | 4.5 | -0.60 |
| 87 | Delaware | 6.25 | 6.5 | -0.25 |
| 88 | South Alabama | 5.95 | 5.5 | +0.45 |
| 89 | Fresno State UNDER | 5.78 | 7.5 | -1.72 |
| 90 | Southern Miss OVER | 5.28 | 3.5 | +1.78 |
| 91 | Marshall | 7.44 | 7.5 | -0.06 |
| 92 | Temple | 5.53 | 5.5 | +0.03 |
| 93 | Kennesaw State | 6.00 | 6.5 | -0.50 |
| 94 | Stanford | 3.40 | 3.5 | -0.10 |
| 95 | Colorado State | 3.66 | 4.5 | -0.84 |
| 96 | West Virginia | 4.77 | 5.5 | -0.73 |
| 97 | Tulsa | 5.64 | 6.5 | -0.86 |
| 98 | Georgia Southern | 4.60 | 5.5 | -0.90 |
| 99 | Liberty | 6.57 | 7.5 | -0.93 |
| 100 | New Mexico State | 4.71 | 4.5 | +0.21 |
| 101 | Western Kentucky | 7.72 | 7.5 | +0.22 |
| 102 | Troy | 6.44 | 6.5 | -0.06 |
| 103 | Hawai'i OVER | 8.35 | 5.5 | +2.85 |
| 104 | San José State | 5.00 | 5.5 | -0.50 |
| 105 | Ohio | 7.07 | 7.5 | -0.43 |
| 106 | Florida International | 6.39 | 5.5 | +0.89 |
| 107 | Rice | 3.74 | 3.5 | +0.24 |
| 108 | Missouri State OVER | 4.95 | 3.5 | +1.45 |
| 109 | Florida Atlantic | 5.14 | 5.5 | -0.36 |
| 110 | Oregon State | 3.82 | 4.5 | -0.68 |
| 111 | Arkansas State | 5.79 | 5.5 | +0.29 |
| 112 | Middle Tennessee OVER | 5.09 | 3.5 | +1.59 |
| 113 | Miami (OH) | 6.61 | 7.5 | -0.89 |
| 114 | California | 5.55 | 5.5 | +0.05 |
| 115 | Rutgers OVER | 5.53 | 2.5 | +3.03 |
| 116 | Boston College | 3.65 | 3.5 | +0.15 |
| 117 | Akron OVER | 6.04 | 4.5 | +1.54 |
| 118 | Georgia State | 4.14 | 4.5 | -0.36 |
| 119 | UAB | 4.35 | 3.5 | +0.85 |
| 120 | Jacksonville State | 7.22 | 7.5 | -0.28 |
| 121 | Utah State | 4.75 | 5.5 | -0.75 |
| 122 | Eastern Michigan | 6.18 | 5.5 | +0.68 |
| 123 | Central Michigan | 6.39 | 6.5 | -0.11 |
| 124 | Buffalo | 6.04 | 5.5 | +0.54 |
| 125 | Northern Illinois OVER | 5.17 | 3.5 | +1.67 |
| 126 | Coastal Carolina | 4.65 | 5.5 | -0.85 |
| 127 | Kent State OVER | 4.53 | 3.5 | +1.03 |
| 128 | Ball State | 3.83 | 3.5 | +0.33 |
| 129 | UTEP | 4.28 | 3.5 | +0.78 |
| 130 | Oklahoma State UNDER | 3.01 | 4.5 | -1.49 |
| 131 | UL Monroe | 4.36 | 3.5 | +0.86 |
| 132 | Wyoming OVER | 5.71 | 4.5 | +1.21 |
| 133 | Sam Houston | 3.42 | 3.5 | -0.08 |
| 134 | Massachusetts UNDER | 2.56 | 5.5 | -2.94 |
| 135 | Bowling Green | 5.15 | 4.5 | +0.65 |
| 136 | Charlotte OVER | 2.78 | 1.5 | +1.28 |
| · | North Dakota State Moved up from the FCS (Mountain West) this season. No FBS history for the model’s components yet. | not yet rated | 9.5 | · |
| · | Sacramento State Moved up from the FCS (MAC) this season. No FBS history for the model’s components yet. | not yet rated | 4.5 | · |
How these predictions are made
Full methodology
One model, every team, the same treatment. Each team's rating comes from the five components above, each pulled from a producing table in our database. The rating then plays out the team's real 2026 schedule: every matchup becomes a win probability and the probabilities sum to the expected wins you see here. No team gets a manual adjustment.
The validation happened before the season, not after. The model was fit on the 2021 through 2023 seasons and tested on two seasons it never saw. Average miss: 1.88 wins per team. That error bar is why we treat gaps under a win as noise and why only 38 of the 136 teams here carry a flag.
Where the market line comes from. Posted win totals from BetMGM, DraftKings, and Caesars via the VegasInsider board, hand captured with the date and source recorded for every entry. When books split on a number we record the majority line. Books move these lines through August; the capture dates above are the ones behind this table.
Every pick we post grades in public at the record page. Futures grade slowly, and each of these numbers will get its answer when the season ends.
The leans that clear our error bar
7 win totals where our number and the market disagree by two full wins or more, each with the components behind it, the correlation warning, and the exact price that keeps it playable. That board is where we put our name on a side.
Provenance: our numbers are the EL Preseason Rating v1 (edgelabs.el_preseason_rating, season 2026, model v1), rendered live from the database on every request. Market lines hand captured from the VegasInsider win totals board (BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars), full slate captured Sep 10, 2026, read from the board file at request time so a fresh capture never needs a rebuild. Related: futures board · power ratings · week 1 games. Predictions, not guarantees. Research and context · 21+.