College football and NFL picks · 2026

The 2026 record

Every pick we post lands here and grades in public, college football and NFL each on its own line. Both seasons open 0-0 and the ledger only ever grows.

15-11

2026 CFB high confidence picks

57.7% win rate, n=26

1-0

2026 NFL high confidence picks

100.0% win rate, n=1 · 2 pending

The pick ledger

High confidence is the record this desk stands on, so it is the headline above and the one our posts cite. Every pick freezes the moment its lean fires, at the number we were locked at, and grades against that same number. Confidence is how decisively the evidence agreed when we made the pick, never a win probability, and a tier is never recomputed after the fact. The lower tiers and the free subset each make a different claim, so they are counted on their own tabs rather than folded into the headline, and nothing is hidden: every pick we lock grades here, win or lose. Free picks are the ones we released publicly, three a week per league, and that tab cuts across the tiers on purpose, because it is the record a reader who never paid us actually saw. All tiers combined, the season is CFB 69-83-2, NFL 4-0.

NFL week 1 · Sep 9 to Sep 13 High confidence 1-0 · 100.0% win rate, n=1 · 2 pending

Sep 13 Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals +9.5 · free Pending
Sep 13 Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders Under 40.5 (total) · free Pending
Sep 10 San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams San Francisco 49ers +3.5 San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 7 Win

NFL week 1 · Sep 9 to Sep 13 Medium confidence 2-0 · 100.0% win rate, n=2

Sep 10 San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams Under 48.5 (total) San Francisco 49ers 27, Los Angeles Rams 7 Win
Sep 9 New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks Under 44.5 (total) New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13 Win

NFL week 1 · Sep 9 to Sep 13 Low confidence 1-0 · 100.0% win rate, n=1

Sep 9 New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots +3.5 New England Patriots 10, Seattle Seahawks 13 Win

NFL week 1 · Sep 9 to Sep 13 Free picks none graded yet · 2 pending

Sep 13 Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers Arizona Cardinals +9.5 · high Pending
Sep 13 Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders Under 40.5 (total) · high Pending

CFB week 2 · Sep 10 to Sep 12 High confidence 4-4 · 50.0% win rate, n=8

Sep 12 Arkansas at Utah Under 54.5 (total) · free Arkansas 10, Utah 43 Win
Sep 12 Delaware at Vanderbilt Delaware +21 Delaware 26, Vanderbilt 35 Win
Sep 12 Maryland at UConn UConn +12.5 · free Maryland 38, UConn 14 Loss
Sep 12 Arizona at BYU Arizona +7.5 Arizona 17, BYU 28 Loss
Sep 12 Utah State at Washington Under 55.5 (total) Utah State 14, Washington 16 Win
Sep 12 Oregon at Oklahoma State Oregon -22.5 · free Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39 Loss
Sep 12 Washington State at Kansas State Under 49 (total) Washington State 7, Kansas State 34 Win
Sep 11 Missouri at Kansas Kansas +5.5 Missouri 38, Kansas 21 Loss

CFB week 2 · Sep 10 to Sep 12 Medium confidence 28-38 · 42.4% win rate, n=66

Sep 12 New Mexico State at Hawai'i Under 49.5 (total) New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29 Win
Sep 12 Louisiana at USC Under 59.5 (total) Louisiana 30, USC 49 Loss
Sep 12 Sacramento State at Fresno State Sacramento State +17.5 Sacramento State 3, Fresno State 49 Loss
Sep 12 Montana State at Nevada Under 50.5 (total) Montana State 20, Nevada 7 Win
Sep 12 Sacramento State at Fresno State Under 44.5 (total) Sacramento State 3, Fresno State 49 Loss
Sep 12 North Dakota State at Air Force Under 47.5 (total) North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32 Loss
Sep 12 Cal Poly at San José State Cal Poly +20.5 Cal Poly 20, San José State 30 Win
Sep 12 Charlotte at Ole Miss Charlotte +47.5 Charlotte 9, Ole Miss 41 Win
Sep 12 Southern Miss at Auburn Southern Miss +33.5 Southern Miss 8, Auburn 43 Loss
Sep 12 Charlotte at Ole Miss Under 60.5 (total) Charlotte 9, Ole Miss 41 Win
Sep 12 Georgia Southern at Clemson Georgia Southern +20.5 Georgia Southern 7, Clemson 22 Win
Sep 12 Navy at Florida Atlantic Navy -4.5 Navy 30, Florida Atlantic 38 Loss
Sep 12 Iowa State at Iowa Iowa State +14 Iowa State 13, Iowa 16 Win
Sep 12 Ohio State at Texas Ohio State +1.5 Ohio State 23, Texas 24 Win
Sep 12 Texas Tech at Oregon State Over 53.5 (total) Texas Tech 49, Oregon State 27 Win
Sep 12 Iowa State at Iowa Under 40.5 (total) Iowa State 13, Iowa 16 Win
Sep 12 Georgia Southern at Clemson Under 55.5 (total) Georgia Southern 7, Clemson 22 Win
Sep 12 Lindenwood at Missouri State Lindenwood +19.5 Lindenwood 14, Missouri State 48 Loss
Sep 12 Southern Utah at Colorado State Southern Utah +20.5 Southern Utah 24, Colorado State 58 Loss
Sep 12 Bowling Green at Nebraska Nebraska -30.5 Bowling Green 7, Nebraska 56 Win
Sep 12 Middle Tennessee at Marshall Middle Tennessee +13.5 Middle Tennessee 26, Marshall 28 Win
Sep 12 South Alabama at Tulane South Alabama +9.5 South Alabama 24, Tulane 28 Win
Sep 12 Tulsa at Sam Houston Sam Houston +13.5 Tulsa 23, Sam Houston 17 Win
Sep 12 Tennessee at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech +12.5 Tennessee 45, Georgia Tech 24 Loss
Sep 12 Middle Tennessee at Marshall Under 56.5 (total) Middle Tennessee 26, Marshall 28 Win
Sep 12 Illinois State at Northern Illinois Under 47.5 (total) Illinois State 28, Northern Illinois 24 Loss
Sep 12 South Alabama at Tulane Under 49.5 (total) South Alabama 24, Tulane 28 Loss
Sep 12 Bowling Green at Nebraska Under 51.5 (total) Bowling Green 7, Nebraska 56 Loss
Sep 12 Southern Utah at Colorado State Under 56.5 (total) Southern Utah 24, Colorado State 58 Loss
Sep 12 Georgia State at Kennesaw State Under 54.5 (total) Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17 Win
Sep 12 Tennessee at Georgia Tech Under 55.5 (total) Tennessee 45, Georgia Tech 24 Loss
Sep 12 Memphis at Boise State Memphis +8.5 Memphis 20, Boise State 38 Loss
Sep 12 Jacksonville State at Ohio Under 50.5 (total) Jacksonville State 27, Ohio 29 Loss
Sep 12 Buffalo at Florida International Under 47.5 (total) Buffalo 20, Florida International 33 Loss
Sep 12 Memphis at Boise State Over 54.5 (total) Memphis 20, Boise State 38 Win
Sep 12 Delaware at Vanderbilt Under 54.5 (total) Delaware 26, Vanderbilt 35 Loss
Sep 12 UNLV at North Texas Under 56.5 (total) UNLV 6, North Texas 44 Win
Sep 12 Rice at Notre Dame Rice +44.5 Rice 0, Notre Dame 52 Loss
Sep 12 UL Monroe at UAB UAB -10 UL Monroe 20, UAB 26 Loss
Sep 12 Duke at Illinois Duke +5.5 Duke 31, Illinois 27 Win
Sep 12 UCF at Pittsburgh Under 56.5 (total) UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12 Win
Sep 12 UL Monroe at UAB Under 55.5 (total) UL Monroe 20, UAB 26 Win
Sep 12 Duke at Illinois Under 51.5 (total) Duke 31, Illinois 27 Loss
Sep 12 Eastern Michigan at Michigan State Under 49.5 (total) Eastern Michigan 7, Michigan State 35 Win
Sep 12 Alabama at Kentucky Under 49.5 (total) Alabama 45, Kentucky 17 Loss
Sep 12 Mississippi State at Minnesota Under 55.5 (total) Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13 Win
Sep 12 Stony Brook at Ball State Stony Brook +15.5 Stony Brook 17, Ball State 41 Loss
Sep 12 Wofford at Kent State Wofford +11.5 Wofford 15, Kent State 36 Loss
Sep 12 App State at East Carolina App State +7 App State 27, East Carolina 24 Win
Sep 12 Wake Forest at Purdue Wake Forest -3 Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36 Loss
Sep 12 Washington State at Kansas State Washington State +18.5 Washington State 7, Kansas State 34 Loss
Sep 12 Penn State at Temple Penn State -23.5 Penn State 27, Temple 9 Loss
Sep 12 Old Dominion at Virginia Tech Old Dominion +19.5 Old Dominion 21, Virginia Tech 44 Loss
Sep 12 Oregon at Oklahoma State Under 57.5 (total) Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39 Loss
Sep 12 Wofford at Kent State Under 47.5 (total) Wofford 15, Kent State 36 Loss
Sep 12 Oklahoma at Michigan Under 43.5 (total) Oklahoma 10, Michigan 17 Win
Sep 12 Penn State at Temple Under 49.5 (total) Penn State 27, Temple 9 Win
Sep 12 Old Dominion at Virginia Tech Under 49.5 (total) Old Dominion 21, Virginia Tech 44 Loss
Sep 12 South Florida at Army Under 46.5 (total) South Florida 28, Army 24 Loss
Sep 11 Missouri at Kansas Under 50 (total) Missouri 38, Kansas 21 Loss
Sep 11 Rutgers at Boston College Rutgers +3.5 Rutgers 21, Boston College 28 Loss
Sep 11 Rutgers at Boston College Under 54.5 (total) Rutgers 21, Boston College 28 Win
Sep 11 Richmond at NC State Richmond +32.5 Richmond 0, NC State 73 Loss
Sep 11 Norfolk State at Virginia Norfolk State +45.5 Norfolk State 3, Virginia 59 Loss
Sep 11 Norfolk State at Virginia Under 54.5 (total) Norfolk State 3, Virginia 59 Loss
Sep 10 Florida A&M at Miami Under 65.5 (total) Florida A&M 7, Miami 77 Loss

CFB week 2 · Sep 10 to Sep 12 Low confidence 20-17 · 54.1% win rate, n=37

Sep 12 New Mexico State at Hawai'i New Mexico State +7.5 New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29 Loss
Sep 12 Louisiana at USC Louisiana +30.5 Louisiana 30, USC 49 Win
Sep 12 Montana State at Nevada Nevada +3.5 Montana State 20, Nevada 7 Loss
Sep 12 Arkansas at Utah Utah -12.5 Arkansas 10, Utah 43 Win
Sep 12 Cal Poly at San José State Over 57.5 (total) Cal Poly 20, San José State 30 Loss
Sep 12 Southern Miss at Auburn Under 56.5 (total) Southern Miss 8, Auburn 43 Win
Sep 12 Texas Tech at Oregon State Oregon State +25.5 Texas Tech 49, Oregon State 27 Win
Sep 12 Louisiana Tech at LSU Louisiana Tech +35.5 Louisiana Tech 14, LSU 45 Win
Sep 12 Louisiana Tech at LSU Under 55.5 (total) Louisiana Tech 14, LSU 45 Loss
Sep 12 Ohio State at Texas Under 49.5 (total) Ohio State 23, Texas 24 Win
Sep 12 Navy at Florida Atlantic Under 58.5 (total) Navy 30, Florida Atlantic 38 Loss
Sep 12 San Diego State at UCLA Under 55.5 (total) San Diego State 10, UCLA 28 Win
Sep 12 Illinois State at Northern Illinois Illinois State -3.5 Illinois State 28, Northern Illinois 24 Win
Sep 12 Georgia State at Kennesaw State Georgia State +9.5 Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17 Win
Sep 12 Tulsa at Sam Houston Under 51.5 (total) Tulsa 23, Sam Houston 17 Win
Sep 12 Lindenwood at Missouri State Under 53.5 (total) Lindenwood 14, Missouri State 48 Loss
Sep 12 Jacksonville State at Ohio Ohio -2.5 Jacksonville State 27, Ohio 29 Loss
Sep 12 Buffalo at Florida International Florida International -10.5 Buffalo 20, Florida International 33 Win
Sep 12 UNLV at North Texas UNLV -3.5 UNLV 6, North Texas 44 Loss
Sep 12 Eastern Michigan at Michigan State Eastern Michigan +17.5 Eastern Michigan 7, Michigan State 35 Loss
Sep 12 UTSA at Texas State Texas State -2 UTSA 31, Texas State 26 Loss
Sep 12 UCF at Pittsburgh UCF +7.5 UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12 Win
Sep 12 Mississippi State at Minnesota Mississippi State -1.5 Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13 Win
Sep 12 Maryland at UConn Over 52.5 (total) Maryland 38, UConn 14 Loss
Sep 12 Arizona at BYU Under 47.5 (total) Arizona 17, BYU 28 Win
Sep 12 UTSA at Texas State Under 66.5 (total) UTSA 31, Texas State 26 Win
Sep 12 California at Syracuse Over 56.5 (total) California 21, Syracuse 18 Loss
Sep 12 Stony Brook at Ball State Under 56.5 (total) Stony Brook 17, Ball State 41 Loss
Sep 12 Western Kentucky at Georgia Georgia -40.5 Western Kentucky 20, Georgia 70 Win
Sep 12 Western Kentucky at Georgia Under 55.5 (total) Western Kentucky 20, Georgia 70 Loss
Sep 12 South Florida at Army Army -3.5 South Florida 28, Army 24 Loss
Sep 12 Oklahoma at Michigan Michigan +5.5 Oklahoma 10, Michigan 17 Win
Sep 12 App State at East Carolina Under 56.5 (total) App State 27, East Carolina 24 Win
Sep 12 Arizona State at Texas A&M Under 50.5 (total) Arizona State 20, Texas A&M 48 Loss
Sep 12 Wake Forest at Purdue Over 49.5 (total) Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36 Win
Sep 11 Villanova at Louisville Villanova +36.5 Villanova 13, Louisville 59 Loss
Sep 11 Villanova at Louisville Over 56.5 (total) Villanova 13, Louisville 59 Win

CFB week 2 · Sep 10 to Sep 12 Free picks 1-2 · 33.3% win rate, n=3

Sep 12 Arkansas at Utah Under 54.5 (total) · high Arkansas 10, Utah 43 Win
Sep 12 Maryland at UConn UConn +12.5 · high Maryland 38, UConn 14 Loss
Sep 12 Oregon at Oklahoma State Oregon -22.5 · high Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39 Loss

CFB week 1 · Aug 29 to Sep 7 High confidence 11-7-1 · 61.1% win rate, n=18

Sep 6 Washington State at Washington Washington State +23.5 Washington State 10, Washington 24 Win
Sep 5 Western Michigan at Michigan Western Michigan +27.5 Western Michigan 12, Michigan 13 Win
Sep 5 UL Monroe at Mississippi State UL Monroe +28.5 UL Monroe 13, Mississippi State 62 Loss
Sep 5 Oklahoma State at Tulsa Tulsa +14 · free Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24 Win
Sep 5 Texas State at Texas Texas State +30.5 Texas State 7, Texas 59 Loss
Sep 5 Kent State at South Carolina Kent State +36.5 Kent State 0, South Carolina 57 Loss
Sep 5 Ohio at Nebraska Ohio +23.5 Ohio 21, Nebraska 49 Loss
Sep 5 North Texas at Indiana North Texas +40.5 · free North Texas 16, Indiana 52 Win
Sep 5 Coastal Carolina at West Virginia Coastal Carolina +21.5 · free Coastal Carolina 24, West Virginia 31 Win
Sep 5 East Carolina at Alabama East Carolina +28.5 East Carolina 10, Alabama 48 Loss
Sep 4 Toledo at Michigan State Toledo +10 Toledo 20, Michigan State 30 Push
Sep 3 UAB at Illinois UAB +28.5 UAB 23, Illinois 42 Win
Sep 3 Akron at Wake Forest Akron +24.5 Akron 16, Wake Forest 38 Win
Aug 29 Memphis at UNLV Memphis +4.5 Memphis 27, UNLV 21 Win
Aug 29 Hawai'i at Stanford Hawai'i +4 · free Hawai'i 27, Stanford 37 Loss
Aug 29 New Mexico State at Florida State New Mexico State +31.5 New Mexico State 17, Florida State 34 Win
Aug 29 NC State at Virginia NC State +4 · free Virginia 34, NC State 8 Loss
Aug 29 San José State at USC San José State +38.5 USC 42, San José State 26 (lost by 16, covered +38.5) Win
Aug 29 North Carolina vs TCU North Carolina +7.5 · free North Carolina 15, TCU 10 (won outright) Win

CFB week 1 · Aug 29 to Sep 7 Medium confidence 2-15-1 · 11.8% win rate, n=17

Sep 7 SMU at Florida State Florida State +3 SMU 27, Florida State 24 Push
Sep 6 Wisconsin vs Notre Dame Notre Dame -20.5 Wisconsin 13, Notre Dame 41 Win
Sep 6 Louisville vs Ole Miss Ole Miss -6.5 Louisville 38, Ole Miss 41 Loss
Sep 5 Western Kentucky at Nevada Western Kentucky -2.5 Western Kentucky 14, Nevada 49 Loss
Sep 5 UCLA at California California +1.5 UCLA 45, California 24 Loss
Sep 5 Central Michigan at New Mexico Central Michigan +10.5 Central Michigan 7, New Mexico 38 Loss
Sep 5 UNLV at Hawai'i Hawai'i +3.5 UNLV 21, Hawai'i 6 Loss
Sep 5 Florida Atlantic at Florida Florida Atlantic +27.5 Florida Atlantic 21, Florida 66 Loss
Sep 5 Clemson at LSU Clemson +10.5 Clemson 10, LSU 51 Loss
Sep 5 Northern Illinois at Iowa Northern Illinois +31.5 Northern Illinois 0, Iowa 40 Loss
Sep 5 Marshall at Penn State Marshall +24.5 Marshall 0, Penn State 45 Loss
Sep 5 Boise State at Oregon Oregon -24.5 Boise State 27, Oregon 34 Loss
Sep 5 Tulane at Duke Tulane +9.5 Tulane 3, Duke 17 Loss
Sep 5 Baylor vs Auburn Auburn -7 Baylor 16, Auburn 17 Loss
Sep 5 Liberty at James Madison James Madison -6.5 Liberty 13, James Madison 20 Win
Sep 5 Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh Miami (OH) +16.5 Miami (OH) 14, Pittsburgh 59 Loss
Sep 4 UTEP at Oklahoma UTEP +41.5 UTEP 0, Oklahoma 51 Loss
Sep 3 Colorado at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech -6.5 Colorado 14, Georgia Tech 13 Loss

CFB week 1 · Aug 29 to Sep 7 Low confidence 4-2 · 66.7% win rate, n=6

Sep 5 Florida International at South Florida Florida International +14 Florida International 9, South Florida 19 Win
Sep 5 Arkansas State at Memphis Memphis -10 Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42 Win
Sep 5 Missouri State at Texas A&M Missouri State +41.5 Missouri State 0, Texas A&M 50 Loss
Sep 5 Ball State at Ohio State Ohio State -50.5 Ball State 3, Ohio State 56 Win
Sep 5 Oregon State at Houston Oregon State +20.5 Oregon State 20, Houston 33 Win
Sep 4 Fresno State at USC Fresno State +22.5 Fresno State 0, USC 39 Loss

CFB week 1 · Aug 29 to Sep 7 Free picks 4-2 · 66.7% win rate, n=6

Sep 5 Oklahoma State at Tulsa Tulsa +14 · high Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24 Win
Sep 5 North Texas at Indiana North Texas +40.5 · high North Texas 16, Indiana 52 Win
Sep 5 Coastal Carolina at West Virginia Coastal Carolina +21.5 · high Coastal Carolina 24, West Virginia 31 Win
Aug 29 Hawai'i at Stanford Hawai'i +4 · high Hawai'i 27, Stanford 37 Loss
Aug 29 NC State at Virginia NC State +4 · high Virginia 34, NC State 8 Loss
Aug 29 North Carolina vs TCU North Carolina +7.5 · high North Carolina 15, TCU 10 (won outright) Win

The conviction bar, a stricter ledger

A separate and older ledger: picks that clear the conviction bar, which asks for converging angles with real samples behind them rather than a rating gap alone. It is a higher bar than the pick ledger above and it is deliberately quiet. No 2026 pick has cleared it yet, so it reads 0-0 for the season. That is the bar being strict, not the season being empty: the graded picks are in the ledger above.

How every pick gets graded

Every pick freezes at post time. The side, the line, and the number we played never change after we hit post.
Every pick grades against the final score at the number we posted. The closing line is shown on the game page for reference, so you can see whether we beat the market too.
Wins and misses both post within 24 hours. Same format, same weight.
The ledger is append-only. Nothing gets deleted, edited, or quietly dropped.

Backtest, not picks

Where the board comes from

How was this backtested?

The angles behind the board were built on five seasons of CFB data and tested out of sample before anything reaches this page. The early-totals work is public so you can inspect it. Backtest numbers are history, not the record above.

See the early-totals backtest →

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