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Edge Labs · College football · Regression watch

Who the record says is due to move.

One finding drives this whole page · records drift back toward the talent on the roster. We take each team's 2025-season record and set it against the talent it actually signed. The teams that won far more than their talent says are flagged to give some back. The teams that won far less are flagged to bounce. This is a tendency and a watchlist · the direction the base rate leans, not a score, not a pick, not a bet.

The base rate, stated straight: across 2020 to 2025, point-in-time, teams that outran their recruiting talent gave back about 15 win-percentage points the next season, and the underachievers rose about as much. n is more than 150 on each side. It is a tendency, not a guarantee · any single team can buck it.

~15 pts
avg win-% swing · next year · n>150/side

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The gap is how far a team's 2025-season record sat above or below its talent rank, in percentile points · bigger gap, stronger the pull. Only FBS teams with at least eight completed games are in the universe · n=131.
Regression-down candidates Outran their talent
n=15 · shown
Won far more than the roster's talent in 2025. The base rate says these tend to give some back. A lean, not a lock.
Team 2025 rec Win% Talent Gap
Kennesaw State
C-USA		 10-4 71% 54.4 +82 pts
Old Dominion
Sun Belt		 10-3 77% 59.7 +79 pts
Navy
AAC		 11-2 85% 61.8 +78 pts
James Madison
Sun Belt		 12-2 86% 63.2 +74 pts
Western Michigan
MAC		 10-4 71% 61.9 +68 pts
UNLV
Mountain West		 10-4 71% 62.2 +66 pts
New Mexico
Mountain West		 9-4 69% 55.6 +65 pts
Fresno State
Pac-12		 9-4 69% 56.7 +64 pts
North Texas
AAC		 12-2 86% 65.0 +62 pts
San Diego State
Pac-12		 9-4 69% 61.1 +58 pts
Sac State
MAC		 7-5 58% 54.7 +55 pts
BYU
Big 12		 12-2 86% 67.3 +52 pts
Virginia
ACC		 11-3 79% 66.9 +49 pts
Boise State
Pac-12		 9-5 64% 62.7 +47 pts
Indiana
Big Ten		 16-0 100% 69.1 +46 pts
Bounce-back candidates Underran their talent
n=15 · shown
Won far less than the roster's talent in 2025. The base rate says these tend to climb back. A lean, not a lock.
Team 2025 rec Win% Talent Gap
South Carolina
SEC		 4-8 33% 77.2 −78 pts
Florida
SEC		 4-8 33% 76.7 −76 pts
Oklahoma State
Big 12		 1-11 8% 72.2 −75 pts
Maryland
Big Ten		 4-8 33% 74.1 −71 pts
Wisconsin
Big Ten		 4-8 33% 73.8 −69 pts
Virginia Tech
ACC		 3-9 25% 71.7 −65 pts
Stanford
ACC		 4-8 33% 72.3 −65 pts
Boston College
ACC		 2-10 17% 70.7 −64 pts
Colorado
Big 12		 3-9 25% 70.9 −62 pts
Auburn
SEC		 5-7 42% 77.1 −62 pts
Florida State
ACC		 5-7 42% 76.6 −59 pts
Michigan State
Big Ten		 4-8 33% 71.2 −58 pts
Syracuse
ACC		 3-9 25% 70.6 −57 pts
Purdue
Big Ten		 2-10 17% 69.9 −57 pts
Arkansas
SEC		 2-10 17% 69.6 −55 pts

A tendency, not a forecast. Every team here is flagged by one thing only · how far its 2025-season record sat from its recruiting talent. That gap pulls back toward the roster on average · about 15 win-percentage points · but it is a base rate across 131 teams, not a promise about any one of them. Injuries, a new coach, a quarterback leap · any of it can override the lean. We do not turn this into a pick or a bet, because the regression signal does not beat the spread and we tested that. Watch 2026 · 2025 record vs talent · n=131 · research, not advice · 21+.
See the full national talent power ranking →