The pipeline behind every pick.

CFB full-game totals in regular-season weeks 1-3 (games played in August through approximately September 14), for games where the closing total >= 47, produce actual combined scores UNDER the closing no-vig total at >=54% in 2015-2025 FBS regular season (n>=300), because early-season totals are shaded upward by peak-season public over-action (Paul & Weinbach 2007, note_69) while the information gap between preseason projections and actual Week 1-3 team quality prevents sufficient sharp correction before game time.

CFB team-total UNDER bets when one team's implied score (game total minus spread, divided by 2) falls in the lowest quintile of the historical same-season distribution yield positive ROI net of vig, because bookmakers price team totals using symmetric score distributions that systematically underestimate the probability mass below the line when scores approach the zero floor.

FBS road teams whose home campus is at elevation below 1,000 feet cover the closing no-vig ATS at <=44% in Mountain West regular-season home games at venues above 4,000 feet elevation (Air Force, Wyoming, Utah State, Colorado State, Nevada, Boise State; excl. Colorado, hypothesis H93), 2015-2025 (excl. 2020), minimum gate n>=80, because altitude physiology (Levine and Stray-Gundersen 1997, note_161) reduces aerobic capacity 5-10% in unacclimatized visitors while closing lines set on SP+ do not apply a geography-adjusted quality penalty and non-Colorado Mountain West altitude venues receive less market recognition.

CFB: opening total >= 60 AND absolute spread >= 14 (lopsided favorite) lifts the high-total UNDER hit rate by about 5 points.

FBS teams playing their second consecutive regular-season road game (no home game between the two away games) cover the closing no-vig ATS at <=44% in that second road game, 2015-2025 (excl. 2020), regular season weeks 2-13, minimum gate n>=80, because cumulative travel fatigue from hotel sleep disruption, unfamiliar practice facilities, and consecutive opponent-environment exposure is not priced into lines that apply a single-game road disadvantage adjustment independently for each game.

CFB FBS road teams in the first season of a new head coach (hired January through August of that season) cover the closing no-vig ATS in regular-season road games played in weeks 1-3 at <=44% (home team covers >=56%), 2015-2025 (excl. 2020), minimum gate n>=100, because closing lines anchor on prior-year SP+ without a scheme-installation penalty, while new coaching staffs produce maximum communication errors under road crowd noise in their first competitive game exposure with players learning new assignments.

FBS regular-season G5 home teams receiving >= 10 points on the closing no-vig ATS in weeks 1-2 vs. P4 road opponents (2015-2025, excl. 2020) cover the spread at >=56%, minimum gate n>=80, because early-season public money maximally inflates the P4 road-favorite spread while G5 home openers carry peak opening-day crowd advantage and P4 programs integrate new transfers and system installations in their first live reps.

FBS home teams in regular-season games scheduled on Tuesday or Thursday cover the closing no-vig ATS at <=44%, 2015-2025 (excl. 2020), minimum gate n>=60, because standard home-field spread credit (~2.5 to 3 points) is misapplied to mid-week games where reduced crowd attendance and compressed preparation time eliminate the home-environment advantages that justify the credit, while road teams benefit from simpler game plans suited to a 6-day turnaround.

CFB breakout-team fade: FBS teams that improved their prior-season conference win total by 4+ wins open the following season as home favorites of -10 or greater (weeks 1-6) and fail to cover the spread at rates above 55%, because betting markets underestimate season-to-season mean-reversion in program strength.

FBS road teams from Pacific time zone schools playing at Eastern or Central time zone venues with kickoffs at or before 12:30 PM ET cover the closing no-vig ATS at <=44%, 2015-2025 (excl. 2020), minimum gate n>=60, because a 9:00 to 9:30 AM Pacific kickoff places players in active competition at their circadian low point for alertness and fine-motor performance, while sportsbooks set lines on SP+ quality metrics without applying a time-of-day or timezone adjustment factor.

CFB FBS teams whose prior-season final game was played on or after January 5 (CFP quarterfinal round or beyond) cover the closing no-vig ATS in their season Week 0 or Week 1 opener at <=44% (opponent covers >=56%), 2016-2025, minimum gate n>=40, because CFP deep-run programs absorb maximum January-onwards roster disruption -- accelerated portal departures, early NFL declarations, and staff poaching -- while closing lines treat CFP pedigree as a quality-continuation positive rather than a roster-stability risk.

FBS road teams playing their first conference regular-season road game of the season after at least two prior non-conference games cover the closing no-vig ATS at <=44% in that game, 2015-2025 (excl. 2020), minimum gate n>=100, because the home conference opponent has accumulated 2+ games of live film on the road team while the road team faces conference-caliber defensive and offensive schemes for the first time that season, creating a preparation asymmetry that SP+-based line-setting does not capture.

In FBS non-conference regular-season games (weeks 1-2, 2015-2025 excluding 2020), when the preseason SP+ rating differential (home_sp - away_sp + 2.5 HFA) diverges from the Bovada closing spread by >= 7 points in direction favoring one team, that team covers the closing no-vig spread at >= 62% of qualifying games (n >= 500 in the full 2015-2025 window), because preseason SP+ ratings systematically incorporate team-quality signals that early-season betting lines underweight due to narrative anchoring and public-sentiment pricing.

In FBS non-conference regular-season games (weeks 1-3, 2021-2025, excluding 2020) where the closing total is >=47 AND the preseason SP+ differential exceeds the closing spread by >=8 points in the same direction as the favorite, the UNDER covers the no-vig closing total at >=56%.

FBS regular-season home teams at outdoor venues >= 4,500 feet above sea level (Wyoming War Memorial Stadium 7,220 ft, Air Force Falcon Stadium 6,920 ft, Colorado Folsom Field 5,427 ft, Colorado State Canvas Stadium 5,003 ft, BYU LaVell Edwards Stadium 4,549 ft) cover the closing no-vig ATS spread at >= 56% vs. visiting teams whose home city elevation is below 1,500 feet, 2015-2025 regular season (excl. 2020), minimum n >= 80 qualifying game-sides, because aerobic capacity decreases ~2.4% per 1,000 feet above sea level for unacclimated visitors (Fulco et al. 1998), compressing fourth-quarter competitive output in ways the standard 2.5-3.0 point home-field-advantage adjustment does not capture.

In FBS non-conference regular-season games (weeks 1-3, 2022-2025, excluding 2020) where (a) the home team is a Power 4 program [ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC] and (b) the closing spread is between -2.5 and -14 (competitive home favorite), the home P4 team covers the no-vig closing spread at >=56%, because early-season home crowd intensity in first competitive non-conference home matchups exceeds the standard 2.5-3.0 point HFA adjustment applied uniformly by bookmakers across all game weeks.

FBS regular-season road teams on their 2nd or more consecutive road game (both the current and immediately preceding games are designated away contests) cover the closing no-vig spread at <=46% in 2015-2025 regular season (excl. 2020), minimum gate n=200.

FBS teams on 6-day rest (played prior Saturday, current game on Friday night) cover the closing no-vig spread at <= 47% against opponents on standard 7-day rest, FBS regular season 2015-2025, n >= 2,500 qualifying sides.

In FBS non-conference regular-season games (weeks 1-3, 2015-2025, excluding 2020) where the closing spread is >= 24 points and the underdog has a closing moneyline of >= +600 (implied win probability <= 14.3%): the underdog covers the closing no-vig ATS spread at >= 54% of qualifying games (n >= 150), because cognitive probability overweighting inflates the underdog's moneyline action, prompting bookmakers to shade the ATS spread wider than fair value to balance book — leaving the underdog's ATS price more favorable than the true talent gap warrants.

FBS regular-season post-bye teams cover the closing no-vig spread at ≥54% vs. non-bye opponents in 2015–2025 (n=2,115 games where exactly one team had a bye the prior week), because books anchor on the most recent game result rather than schedule-adjusted team strength, systematically underpricing the preparation and rest advantage the bye team carries into the matchup.

In FBS regular-season games (2015-2025) where one team played their prior game <= 5 days before the current game (short-rest team, typically a Thursday-game team returning Saturday) and the opposing team played their prior game >= 7 days before the current game, the short-rest team covers the closing no-vig spread at <= 46% of qualifying games (i.e., the rested opponent covers >= 54%), because CFB closing lines anchor on prior-game results and talent differentials rather than schedule structure, leaving the 1.5-2 day rest disadvantage systematically underpriced. Minimum n=300 qualifying game-sides.

SP+ rating differential is under-weighted by Vegas in non-conference games (especially early-season) because books rely on preseason ratings that lag SP+.

Programs whose actual CPR (College Production Rating) systematically diverges from their recruiting our composite rating (our composite rating) create persistent Vegas mispricing in their direction of divergence.

CFB: when the opening total is 60 or higher, the UNDER beats the CLOSING total across multiple seasons; the edge is high-total-specific.

CFB full-game totals close under the no-vig closing total at >=54% in games where the closing spread is >=21 points, 2015-2025 regular season (n>=400), because game totals are set with an implicit garbage-time scoring premium that partially fails to materialize when the leading team's starter is pulled after halftime and both teams' scoring efficiency compresses in the fourth quarter.

FBS regular-season games (2015-2025, n>=100) where a team won their prior game by >=28 points show opening-to-closing spread movement of >=1.5 points in that team's favor in >=58% of qualifying matchups, and backing the opponent at open (before public sentiment inflates the blowout winner's line) yields positive CLV of >=0.5 points vs. the closing spread.

MLB full-game totals close under the no-vig closing line at ≥54% in games where either team scored 10+ runs in their prior game, 2020–2025 regular season (n≥150), because bettors and book-setters overreact to extreme prior run-scoring events — anchoring the next-game total above the team's sustainable mean run rate in a pattern analogous to the stock-market overreaction documented by De Bondt & Thaler (1985).

CFB full-game totals close under the no-vig closing total at ≥54% in games where either team's prior game had a final margin ≥28 points, 2015–2025 regular season (n≥200), because book-setters and public bettors anchor the next-game total on the extreme prior outcome, inflating it above the team's sustainable scoring rate.

CFB totals on home P4 teams ranked AP Top 10 at game time produce under win rates ≥54% vs. closing total in 2021–2025 regular season (n≥100), because books shade totals upward to capture public over-betting on marquee programs and the resulting inflated total is above sharp-priced fair value.

Late-season CFB home teams at outdoor Big Ten North, Mountain West, or MAC venues (game-date October 15 – December 15) cover the spread at ≥56% vs. visiting teams from warm-weather conferences (Sun Belt, Conference USA, SEC West non-conference) when game-time temperature ≤40°F, in 2013–2025 regular season (n≥60), because the cold-weather home-field advantage is underpriced when the visitor has no cold-weather practice history.

CFB composite power rating differentials (Sagarin + Massey optimal combination) predict opening-to-closing line movement direction: in FBS games where the composite implies a team ≥4 points stronger than the opening spread favors, that team's line moves ≥1 point in their direction by close in ≥55% of cases, generating positive CLV for composite-informed bettors who enter at open.

CFB spread bets where the bettor's projection falls within 0.5 points of a key number (3 or 7) and the line is set on the favorable side of that key number (e.g., line −2.5 when projection is −2.9, or line −6.5 when projection is −6.8) have cover probabilities that are understated by ≥1.5 percentage points by the standard Φ(differential/σ) formula, because historical CFB score differentials land on exactly 3 at 2.7× and on exactly 7 at 2.1× the rate predicted by a normal distribution.

CFB spreads on G5 vs G5 games are softer than spreads on P4 vs P4 games because books spend less time grading the matchup.

Weather (wind, precipitation) is under-priced into CFB totals more than NFL totals because CFB has more variance in venue-level weather data quality.

CFB team-total under bets on teams with implied score ≤10 points (derived from game total and spread) beat their no-vig probability by ≥3 percentage points because books set team-total lines assuming unconstrained normal score distributions, ignoring the zero-floor censoring effect.

New-HC FBS teams priced as 7-14 point underdogs cover at below-market rates (40.3% ATS, n=278, 2013-2019); fading them — i.e., backing their opponents — yields positive EV in this spread bucket.

Fading new-HC FBS teams priced as 7-14 point favorites in regular season games returns 59.4% ATS for the opponent (n=186, 2020-2025 regular season, FBS only).

CFB FBS score differentials have σ ≥ 15.0 points versus the NFL σ = 13.86 established by Stern (1991), causing the standard Φ(spread/13.86) win-probability formula to overestimate favorite cover probability by ≥ 2 percentage points at spreads of 14+ points in FBS non-conference games.

Vegas under-weights composite roster talent gap in non-marquee CFB matchups. When Team A composite is 0.05+ above Team B AND Vegas implies A as dog, A covers >55% historically.

CFB situational ATS edges (HFA overvalue, big-favorite fade, bowl underdogs, G5 softness)

Preseason power ratings (SP+) beat the early-season CFB opening spread