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CFB full-game totals close under the no-vig closing total at ≥54% in games where either team's prior game had a final margin ≥28 points, 2015–2025 regular season (n≥200), because book-setters and public bettors anchor the next-game total on the extreme prior outcome, inflating it above the team's sustainable scoring rate.

Big Ten, MAC, or Mountain West home teams cover ATS at ≥54% vs same-conference road opponents when game-time temperature ≤40°F in regular-season games October–December (2021–2025, 2020 excluded, n≥60 qualifying games pooled), because cold-weather home-field advantage persists in intra-conference play through venue familiarity, weekly practice conditions, and geographic sub-division temperature variance even when both programs are cold-weather-accustomed.

First-inning totals close under the no-vig first-inning line at >= 54% in MLB games where a right-handed starting pitcher faces a batting lineup with >= 6 right-handed batters in positions 1-5, 2022-2025 regular season (n >= 100), because first-inning lines anchor on aggregate starter ERA rather than platoon-adjusted ERA and the documented RHB-vs-RHP wOBA penalty (~25-30 points) is large enough to compress first-inning scoring below the implied total.

MLB F5 totals exceed the closing F5 line at >= 54% in starts where the starting pitcher's season-to-date FIP exceeds their ERA by >= 1.0 run AND the pitcher's season-to-date ground-ball rate is less than 45%, 2020-2025 regular season (n >= 75), because extreme ground-ball pitchers legitimately suppress BABIP through contact-type profile and should be excluded from FIP-ERA regression signals — the over edge in H39 is concentrated in fly-ball and neutral-profile starters where the FIP-ERA gap is pure BABIP luck.

MLB F5 totals exceed the closing F5 line at ≥54% in starts where the starting pitcher's season-to-date FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) exceeds their ERA by ≥1.0 run AND the pitcher has thrown ≥40 innings in the season, 2020–2025 regular season (n≥100), because MLB betting lines anchor on ERA as the headline visible metric while FIP — which strips out defense, luck on balls in play, and strand-rate sequencing — better predicts future run-allowing; pitchers outperforming their FIP are statistically likely to allow more runs than ERA-based line-setting anticipates.

MLB full-game totals close under the no-vig closing line at ≥54% in games where either team's bullpen recorded ≥20 outs the prior calendar day, 2021–2025 regular season (n≥150), because prior-day depletion reduces next-game high-leverage arm availability below what aggregate bullpen ERA implies and oddsmakers do not adjust the closing total for day-specific arm unavailability.

CFB totals on home P4 teams ranked AP Top 10 at game time produce under win rates ≥54% vs. closing total in 2021–2025 regular season (n≥100), because books shade totals upward to capture public over-betting on marquee programs and the resulting inflated total is above sharp-priced fair value.

Late-season CFB home teams at outdoor Big Ten North, Mountain West, or MAC venues (game-date October 15 – December 15) cover the spread at ≥56% vs. visiting teams from warm-weather conferences (Sun Belt, Conference USA, SEC West non-conference) when game-time temperature ≤40°F, in 2013–2025 regular season (n≥60), because the cold-weather home-field advantage is underpriced when the visitor has no cold-weather practice history.

MLB full-game totals exceed the closing line at >= 54% in games where either team's bullpen recorded >= 20 outs the prior calendar day, in 2021-2025 regular season (n >= 150), because prior-day depletion of high-leverage relievers degrades next-game run prevention below what aggregate bullpen ERA implies and oddsmakers do not fully adjust the closing total for day-specific arm availability.

MLB F5 totals exceed the closing line at ≥54% in games where the starting pitcher's mean pitch velocity (all pitch types combined) in their most recent prior start was ≥0.8 mph below their season-average velocity AND their prior start lasted fewer than 15 outs (fewer than 5 innings pitched), signaling an early removal due to performance degradation, in 2023-2025 regular season (n≥100).

MLB games where the starting pitcher threw a single dominant pitch type at ≥65% usage rate (e.g., sinker-heavy or sweeper-specialist) produce full-game totals that exceed the closing line at ≥54% in 2023-2025 regular season (n≥200), because opposing lineups decode a predictable pitch mix over 5+ innings and generate incremental run-scoring above what ERA/WHIP predicts.

MLB F5 totals exceed the closing F5 line at ≥54% in games where the starting pitcher allowed a barrel-contact rate ≥12% (launch_speed ≥ 98 mph AND launch_angle 8-32°, as a share of in-play batted ball events) in their most recent prior start (2023-2025 regular season, n≥150), because barrel rate is a leading indicator of run-scoring exposure that lags behind ERA/WHIP in same-week line-setting.

MLB full-game totals go under the closing line at ≥54% in day games (first_pitch_utc before 18:00 UTC) where both the home team and the away team each played a game on the immediately preceding calendar day (identified via self-join on games by team_id and game_date), in 2023-2025 regular season (n≥200), because player fatigue and managerial rest decisions compress offensive output but the closing total line reflects full-roster statistics.

MLB full-game totals exceed the closing line at ≥54% in games where the starting pitcher's mean four-seam fastball (pitch_type IN ('FF','FA')) velocity in their most recent prior start was ≥1.5 mph below their season-average four-seam velocity (2023-2025 regular season, n≥150), because books price ERA/WHIP rather than real-time stuff deterioration.

CFB composite power rating differentials (Sagarin + Massey optimal combination) predict opening-to-closing line movement direction: in FBS games where the composite implies a team ≥4 points stronger than the opening spread favors, that team's line moves ≥1 point in their direction by close in ≥55% of cases, generating positive CLV for composite-informed bettors who enter at open.

CFB spread bets where the bettor's projection falls within 0.5 points of a key number (3 or 7) and the line is set on the favorable side of that key number (e.g., line −2.5 when projection is −2.9, or line −6.5 when projection is −6.8) have cover probabilities that are understated by ≥1.5 percentage points by the standard Φ(differential/σ) formula, because historical CFB score differentials land on exactly 3 at 2.7× and on exactly 7 at 2.1× the rate predicted by a normal distribution.

CFB spreads on G5 vs G5 games are softer than spreads on P4 vs P4 games because books spend less time grading the matchup.

Hitter props (total bases / hits / home runs) — the softest MLB market — contain an exploitable public-data edge.

Combining 2-3 factors (park, team form, favorite status, weather, etc.) produces an out-of-sample MLB betting edge on totals or sides.

Pregame total line-movement direction predicts over/under result

Cross-book +EV line-shopping on MLB totals is exploitable as a betting strategy

Home-plate umpire over/under tendency in prior seasons predicts totals result in current season

Teams with 5+ new transfer starters underperform spread in weeks 1-3 because chemistry lag is not priced in to preseason lines.

Weather (wind, precipitation) is under-priced into CFB totals more than NFL totals because CFB has more variance in venue-level weather data quality.

New OC or DC = 3-6 point Vegas-vs-actual penalty for the first half of season, especially against opposing units with continuity.

Park run factor combined with weather (wind direction relative to center field, temperature) is under-weighted in F5 totals.

CFB team-total under bets on teams with implied score ≤10 points (derived from game total and spread) beat their no-vig probability by ≥3 percentage points because books set team-total lines assuming unconstrained normal score distributions, ignoring the zero-floor censoring effect.

New-HC FBS teams priced as 7-14 point underdogs cover at below-market rates (40.3% ATS, n=278, 2013-2019); fading them — i.e., backing their opponents — yields positive EV in this spread bucket.

Fading new-HC FBS teams priced as 7-14 point favorites in regular season games returns 59.4% ATS for the opponent (n=186, 2020-2025 regular season, FBS only).

CFB FBS score differentials have σ ≥ 15.0 points versus the NFL σ = 13.86 established by Stern (1991), causing the standard Φ(spread/13.86) win-probability formula to overestimate favorite cover probability by ≥ 2 percentage points at spreads of 14+ points in FBS non-conference games.

MLB starter strikeout props are systematically over-priced for high-K starters because public squares load up on the over.

Vegas under-weights composite roster talent gap in non-marquee CFB matchups. When Team A composite is 0.05+ above Team B AND Vegas implies A as dog, A covers >55% historically.

F5 moneyline underdogs priced +130 to +220 beat their Shin-corrected implied probability by 2+ percentage points on average in 2023-2025 regular season games, because the favorite-longshot bias documented by Woodland & Woodland (1994) is amplified in the F5 market where sharp liquidity is thinner than full-game moneyline.

Stacking 4+ aligned under-signals yields an under edge on MLB totals

Finding situational/run-line trends live and riding them (momentum) produces an edge

Situational trend-mining on our own data produces a run-line betting edge

Preseason power ratings (SP+) beat the early-season CFB opening spread

CFB situational ATS edges (HFA overvalue, big-favorite fade, bowl underdogs, G5 softness)

MLB umpire strike-zone size produces exploitable unders vs the closing total

MLB wind direction produces exploitable totals vs the closing line

Pitcher strikeout props can be beaten with a public-data model (softer market than game totals)

F5 totals (first-5-innings over/under) can be beaten with a public-data fundamentals model

F5 (first 5 innings) totals are softer than full-game totals because line-makers and sharp action concentrate on the full-game market.