The talent a roster signed vs what it did.
Every FBS team's recruiting talent (the 4-year composite, and its national rank that season) lined up against its actual record. The gap is the story · who outran the roster they had, and who left blue-chip talent on the field. National rank, record, and the sample behind each, on every team.
Talent is a leading indicator and records drift back toward the roster. In our point-in-time test (2020·2025, n>150 each side), teams that outran their recruiting talent fell about 15 win-percentage points the next season, and the ones that underachieved rose about as much. So these gaps tend to close next year. That is a direction the data leans, not a guaranteed pick and not a bet.
| Team | Talent rank | Composite | Record | Win% | Gap (pts) ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia TechACC | #39 / 137 | 72.8 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -72 |
| RutgersBig Ten | #43 / 137 | 72.4 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -69 |
| East CarolinaAAC | #66 / 137 | 69.9 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -52 |
| Ohio StateBig Ten | #1 / 137 | 85.4 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -50 |
| CharlotteAAC | #71 / 137 | 69.4 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -49 |
| Oregon StatePac-12 | #78 / 137 | 68.4 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -43 |
| OregonBig Ten | #11 / 137 | 80.4 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -43 |
| OklahomaSEC | #12 / 137 | 79.8 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -42 |
| Florida StateACC | #14 / 137 | 79.4 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -40 |
| ClemsonACC | #15 / 137 | 79.1 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -40 |
| Western KentuckyC-USA | #89 / 137 | 67.0 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -35 |
| TCUBig 12 | #21 / 137 | 75.5 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -35 |
| WisconsinBig Ten | #23 / 137 | 75.0 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -34 |
| BaylorBig 12 | #25 / 137 | 74.4 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -32 |
| Washington StatePac-12 | #93 / 137 | 66.2 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -32 |
| UCFBig 12 | #30 / 137 | 73.9 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -29 |
| KentuckySEC | #33 / 137 | 73.7 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -26 |
| StanfordACC | #35 / 137 | 73.4 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -25 |
| Texas StateSun Belt | #109 / 137 | 64.9 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -21 |
| Utah StatePac-12 | #111 / 137 | 64.8 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -19 |
| Boston CollegeACC | #44 / 137 | 72.3 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -18 |
| LouisvilleACC | #46 / 137 | 72.2 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -17 |
| ArizonaBig 12 | #48 / 137 | 71.9 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -15 |
| Sam HoustonC-USA | #116 / 137 | 64.3 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -15 |
| Oklahoma StateBig 12 | #49 / 137 | 71.8 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -15 |
| KansasBig 12 | #51 / 137 | 71.6 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -13 |
| MinnesotaBig Ten | #52 / 137 | 71.5 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -12 |
| Iowa StateBig 12 | #53 / 137 | 71.5 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -12 |
| Bowling GreenMAC | #122 / 137 | 63.1 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -11 |
| SyracuseACC | #55 / 137 | 71.5 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -10 |
| ArkansasSEC | #56 / 137 | 71.3 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -10 |
| Arizona StateBig 12 | #57 / 137 | 71.0 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -9 |
| Northern IllinoisMountain West | #125 / 137 | 62.7 | 0-2 (2g) | 0% | -9 |
| TulaneAAC | #59 / 137 | 70.8 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -7 |
| NC StateACC | #60 / 137 | 70.8 | 1-1 (2g) | 50% | -7 |
| Jacksonville StateC-USA | #84 / 137 | 68.0 | 1-2 (3g) | 33% | -6 |
This is talent intelligence, not a betting edge. The recruiting composite does not beat the spread · we tested it and it lands near a coin flip against the number in every bucket. What it does do is show where a roster's talent and its record pulled apart, and that gap tends to regress. Every number ships with its sample (games behind the record, programs behind the rank). Research, not advice.