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Edge Labs · Situational

Umpire tendencies

Per home-plate umpire since 2023: games worked, average combined runs, how often the game cleared the consensus total (OVER %, pushes set aside), and home win %. The OVER % is measured against the number the market itself set, so it reads as a lean above or below the league baseline. This is a real run-environment signal with the sample shown, not a pick.

90Umpires · 30+ games
49.4%League over baseline
52.7%League home win %
8,486Games in sample
Lance Barrett
Clear ×
57.9%Over vs total
9.30Avg runs
8.33Avg total
45.6%Home win %
114Games · 107 decided

Over the 114 games Lance Barrett worked, the game cleared the consensus total 57.9% of the time against a league baseline of 49.4%. Run environment ran +0.96 vs the number the market set. Sample shown · context, not a pick.

21+ · research, not advice · over % set against the market's own consensus total · pushes excluded from over %
Umpire Games Decided Avg runs Avg total Over % Lean Home win %
Alfonso Márquez 111 106 9.95 8.51 62.3% +1.44 49.5%
Andy Fletcher 105 103 10.60 8.57 60.2% +2.03 55.2%
Adrian Johnson 102 96 9.83 8.58 59.4% +1.25 50.0%
Nate Tomlinson 102 100 9.42 8.60 59.0% +0.82 51.0%
Dan Bellino 111 107 9.78 8.44 58.9% +1.35 56.8%
James Jean 46 43 9.72 8.74 58.1% +0.98 60.9%
Lance Barrett 114 107 9.30 8.33 57.9% +0.96 45.6%
Mike Muchlinski 108 101 9.85 8.33 57.4% +1.52 56.5%
Ryan Additon 103 101 9.30 8.51 57.4% +0.79 52.4%
Mark Wegner 98 96 9.78 8.49 57.3% +1.28 50.0%
Tom Hanahan 85 82 9.19 8.41 57.3% +0.78 50.6%
Jordan Baker 107 102 9.36 8.54 56.9% +0.81 48.6%
Malachi Moore 108 104 9.58 8.44 56.7% +1.14 52.8%
Brian Walsh 91 85 9.52 8.30 56.5% +1.21 52.7%
Ben May 105 101 9.76 8.49 56.4% +1.27 52.4%
Willie Traynor 37 36 9.95 8.53 55.6% +1.41 45.9%
Jansen Visconti 107 103 9.02 8.53 55.3% +0.49 45.8%
Jonathan Parra 36 33 8.42 8.48 54.5% -0.06 47.2%
Bruce Dreckman 98 94 9.00 8.54 54.3% +0.46 45.9%
Mark Ripperger 112 104 9.10 8.43 53.8% +0.67 50.9%
Edwin Moscoso 112 108 9.04 8.48 53.7% +0.55 52.7%
Chad Whitson 89 86 9.26 8.45 53.5% +0.81 57.3%
CB Bucknor 81 75 8.74 8.44 53.3% +0.30 60.5%
Bill Miller 114 108 8.82 8.16 52.8% +0.65 53.5%
Jim Wolf 99 95 8.87 8.50 52.6% +0.37 60.6%
Vic Carapazza 118 115 9.23 8.43 52.2% +0.80 44.9%
Chris Guccione 96 92 9.52 8.55 52.2% +0.97 58.3%
Quinn Wolcott 108 104 8.93 8.33 51.9% +0.59 52.8%
Derek Thomas 86 85 9.48 8.73 51.8% +0.74 50.0%
Erich Bacchus 101 95 9.21 8.46 51.6% +0.75 52.5%
John Tumpane 104 99 8.95 8.37 51.5% +0.59 51.0%
Emil Jimenez 101 97 9.30 8.61 51.5% +0.69 55.4%
Larry Vanover 36 33 9.17 8.48 51.5% +0.69 50.0%
Adam Hamari 116 111 8.80 8.45 51.4% +0.35 64.7%
Hunter Wendelstedt 77 76 9.05 8.52 51.3% +0.54 55.8%
Shane Livensparger 84 82 8.73 8.40 51.2% +0.32 56.0%
Mike Estabrook 109 106 8.96 8.48 50.9% +0.48 57.8%
Nestor Ceja 111 107 8.50 8.43 50.5% +0.07 55.0%
Clint Vondrak 107 103 9.87 8.67 50.5% +1.20 47.7%
Gabe Morales 110 108 8.46 8.33 50.0% +0.13 50.0%
Doug Eddings 118 111 8.69 8.32 49.5% +0.37 60.2%
David Rackley 115 109 8.87 8.73 49.5% +0.14 59.1%
D.J. Reyburn 110 107 8.75 8.47 49.5% +0.27 63.6%
Sean Barber 107 103 9.23 8.52 49.5% +0.71 57.0%
Roberto Ortiz 101 95 8.69 8.36 49.5% +0.33 55.4%
Jeremie Rehak 99 96 9.02 8.49 49.0% +0.53 62.6%
Will Little 98 94 8.91 8.44 48.9% +0.47 51.0%
James Hoye 105 99 8.94 8.58 48.5% +0.37 48.6%
Chad Fairchild 101 97 9.20 8.51 48.5% +0.69 37.6%
Chris Segal 109 107 8.68 8.32 47.7% +0.36 58.7%
Paul Clemons 87 84 8.54 8.36 47.6% +0.18 52.9%
Mark Carlson 61 59 8.59 8.31 47.5% +0.28 55.7%
Manny Gonzalez 99 95 8.78 8.51 47.4% +0.27 54.5%
Lance Barksdale 112 108 8.75 8.62 47.2% +0.13 54.5%
Brian O'Nora 99 94 8.90 8.48 46.8% +0.41 49.5%
Nick Mahrley 99 94 8.87 8.58 46.8% +0.29 47.5%
Nic Lentz 109 105 8.51 8.55 46.7% -0.03 47.7%
Carlos Torres 106 101 9.01 8.66 46.5% +0.35 60.4%
Chris Conroy 72 69 8.63 8.41 46.4% +0.22 55.6%
Ramon De Jesus 106 102 9.33 8.47 46.1% +0.86 43.4%
Dan Iassogna 106 102 9.16 8.51 46.1% +0.65 51.9%
Junior Valentine 101 96 8.86 8.64 45.8% +0.23 47.5%
Brock Ballou 61 57 8.66 8.69 45.6% -0.03 49.2%
Alan Porter 111 108 8.89 8.51 45.4% +0.39 51.4%
Charlie Ramos 101 95 8.81 8.61 45.3% +0.20 50.5%
Marvin Hudson 100 93 8.46 8.49 45.2% -0.03 58.0%
Dan Merzel 104 102 8.73 8.45 45.1% +0.28 53.8%
Edwin Jimenez 73 69 8.85 8.48 44.9% +0.37 43.8%
John Libka 109 105 9.06 8.52 44.8% +0.53 43.1%
John Bacon 71 67 8.42 8.42 44.8% 0.00 57.7%
Tripp Gibson 98 90 9.30 8.52 44.4% +0.78 54.1%
Todd Tichenor 107 104 8.32 8.53 44.2% -0.21 49.5%
Adam Beck 108 102 8.69 8.47 44.1% +0.21 50.0%
Rob Drake 76 75 8.66 8.52 44.0% +0.13 50.0%
Laz Diaz 98 94 8.56 8.41 43.6% +0.15 65.3%
Ryan Wills 110 108 8.74 8.69 43.5% +0.05 50.9%
Stu Scheurwater 110 106 8.91 8.55 43.4% +0.36 52.7%
Scott Barry 78 74 9.12 8.48 43.2% +0.63 51.3%
Jeremy Riggs 40 40 8.78 8.48 42.5% +0.29 52.5%
Tony Randazzo 77 76 8.29 8.46 42.1% -0.18 51.9%
Cory Blaser 99 97 7.97 8.45 41.2% -0.48 55.6%
Ron Kulpa 59 56 8.71 8.53 41.1% +0.19 49.2%
Alex Tosi 110 103 8.45 8.58 40.8% -0.13 45.5%
Alex MacKay 90 84 8.12 8.50 40.5% -0.38 53.3%
Ryan Blakney 100 95 7.86 8.50 40.0% -0.64 63.0%
Jacob Metz 52 48 7.71 8.42 39.6% -0.71 46.2%
Brennan Miller 103 100 8.02 8.54 37.0% -0.52 49.5%
Phil Cuzzi 86 80 7.93 8.31 36.3% -0.38 64.0%
Austin Jones 50 50 7.94 8.48 36.0% -0.54 40.0%
Brian Knight 40 37 7.75 8.59 29.7% -0.84 42.5%

Consensus total is the median 'totals' line at the last capture on or before first pitch. Over % is the share of decided games (pushes removed) that finished above that number, so it compares each umpire to the market's own expectation, not a flat over/under. Lean is average runs minus the average consensus total. A signal with its sample, never a guaranteed play.