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Research · MLB props
Prop screener
Every posted batter prop and pitcher-K prop on the slate versus its consensus line, graded the way the cockpit grades them: how often the player actually cleared this number, over the last 10, last 20, and the season, with the sample on every cell. History versus a posted line is context, not a pick. We research, you decide.
Batter props
consensus line per market · cleared-the-line rate, x/n on every cell21+ · descriptive history vs a posted number · never a pick · hit rate vs the line + platoon split, not vs today's pitcher
| Player | Market | Line | O / U best | Mkt O% | L10 | L20 | Season | vs LHP | vs RHP | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman bats S · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -209 / +156 | 63% | 40%4/10 | 55%11/20 | 64%252/393 | 62%70/113 | 65%182/280 | 0.96 |
| Adley Rutschman bats S · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 1.5 | +6000 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 0%0/20 | 1%3/393 | 1%1/113 | 1%2/280 | 0.12 |
| Adley Rutschman bats S · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +136 / -170 | 40% | 10%1/10 | 35%7/20 | 37%147/393 | 44%50/113 | 35%97/280 | 1.53 |
| Coby Mayo bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -131 / -101 | 53% | 80%8/10 | 70%14/20 | 50%50/100 | 59%23/39 | 44%27/61 | 0.61 |
| Coby Mayo bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +425 / · | · | 20%2/10 | 20%4/20 | 11%11/100 | 13%5/39 | 10%6/61 | 0.11 |
| Cole Young bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -252 / +186 | 67% | 20%2/10 | 20%4/20 | 46%34/74 | 57%8/14 | 43%26/60 | 0.64 |
| Cole Young bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +850 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 5%1/20 | 5%4/74 | 7%1/14 | 5%3/60 | 0.05 |
| Cole Young bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +135 / -180 | 40% | 0%0/10 | 10%2/20 | 22%16/74 | 21%3/14 | 22%13/60 | 0.92 |
| Colton Cowser bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -111 / -120 | 49% | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 55%143/261 | 62%38/61 | 53%105/200 | 0.74 |
| Colton Cowser bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +500 / · | · | 20%2/10 | 20%4/20 | 15%38/261 | 13%8/61 | 15%30/200 | 0.15 |
| Gunnar Henderson bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -211 / +157 | 64% | 80%8/10 | 70%14/20 | 67%311/463 | 68%87/128 | 67%224/335 | 1.05 |
| Gunnar Henderson bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 1.5 | +4000 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 0%0/20 | 0%2/463 | 0%0/128 | 1%2/335 | 0.18 |
| Gunnar Henderson bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +122 / -157 | 42% | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 44%203/463 | 35%45/128 | 47%158/335 | 1.88 |
| Jackson Holliday bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -122 / -109 | 51% | 30%3/10 | 60%12/20 | 60%123/205 | 57%26/46 | 61%97/159 | 0.87 |
| Jackson Holliday bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +750 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 10%2/20 | 10%21/205 | 7%3/46 | 11%18/159 | 0.11 |
| Josh Naylor bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -267 / +196 | 68% | 70%7/10 | 75%15/20 | 69%301/435 | 70%86/123 | 69%215/312 | 1.06 |
| Josh Naylor bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +625 / · | · | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 15%67/435 | 11%14/123 | 17%53/312 | 0.16 |
| Josh Naylor bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +122 / -160 | 42% | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 44%191/435 | 41%51/123 | 45%140/312 | 1.76 |
| Julio Rodriguez bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 1.5 | +166 / -224 | 35% | 20%2/10 | 20%4/20 | 32%150/467 | 32%41/127 | 32%109/340 | 1.11 |
| Julio Rodriguez bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 1.5 | +3500 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 0%0/20 | 1%6/467 | 0%0/127 | 2%6/340 | 0.19 |
| Julio Rodriguez bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | -110 / -115 | 49% | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 45%211/467 | 44%56/127 | 46%155/340 | 1.89 |
| Leody Taveras bats S · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -158 / +119 | 57% | 20%2/10 | 35%7/20 | 56%201/360 | 62%52/84 | 54%149/276 | 0.81 |
| Leody Taveras bats S · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +625 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 10%2/20 | 8%29/360 | 4%3/84 | 9%26/276 | 0.08 |
| Mitch Garver bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -149 / +112 | 56% | 40%4/10 | 30%6/20 | 50%155/307 | 51%77/152 | 50%78/155 | 0.68 |
| Mitch Garver bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +500 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 5%1/20 | 14%43/307 | 12%18/152 | 16%25/155 | 0.15 |
| Patrick Wisdom bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -130 / -102 | 53% | 10%1/10 | 15%3/20 | 40%67/168 | 39%41/105 | 41%26/63 | 0.49 |
| Patrick Wisdom bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +350 / · | · | 10%1/10 | 10%2/20 | 17%28/168 | 16%17/105 | 17%11/63 | 0.18 |
| Pete Alonso bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -234 / +174 | 66% | 90%9/10 | 80%16/20 | 62%299/479 | 62%84/136 | 63%215/343 | 0.94 |
| Pete Alonso bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +370 / · | · | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%110/479 | 20%27/136 | 24%83/343 | 0.25 |
| Pete Alonso bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +115 / -148 | 44% | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 44%212/479 | 40%54/136 | 46%158/343 | 1.91 |
| Randy Arozarena bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -245 / +181 | 67% | 60%6/10 | 60%12/20 | 62%295/476 | 63%80/128 | 62%215/348 | 0.88 |
| Randy Arozarena bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +425 / · | · | 10%1/10 | 5%1/20 | 14%68/476 | 18%23/128 | 13%45/348 | 0.15 |
| Randy Arozarena bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +115 / -145 | 44% | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 38%180/476 | 38%49/128 | 38%131/348 | 1.52 |
| Rob Refsnyder bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -144 / +109 | 55% | 30%3/10 | 45%9/20 | 52%127/243 | 50%85/169 | 57%42/74 | 0.72 |
| Rob Refsnyder bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +525 / · | · | 10%1/10 | 15%3/20 | 8%19/243 | 8%13/169 | 8%6/74 | 0.09 |
| Samuel Basallo bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -178 / +134 | 60% | 40%4/10 | 45%9/20 | 52%16/31 | 25%1/4 | 56%15/27 | 0.58 |
| Samuel Basallo bats L · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +400 / · | · | 20%2/10 | 15%3/20 | 13%4/31 | 25%1/4 | 11%3/27 | 0.13 |
| Taylor Ward bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -194 / +145 | 62% | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 62%255/409 | 69%67/97 | 60%188/312 | 0.89 |
| Taylor Ward bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 1.5 | +8000 / · | · | 10%1/10 | 5%1/20 | 1%3/409 | 0%0/97 | 1%3/312 | 0.18 |
| Taylor Ward bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +146 / -179 | 38% | 50%5/10 | 35%7/20 | 41%169/409 | 42%41/97 | 41%128/312 | 1.65 |
| Victor Robles bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -221 / +164 | 65% | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 57%89/155 | 58%39/67 | 57%50/88 | 0.9 |
| Victor Robles bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +750 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 5%1/20 | 3%5/155 | 3%2/67 | 3%3/88 | 0.03 |
| Victor Robles bats R · SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +141 / -176 | 39% | 20%2/10 | 20%4/20 | 39%61/155 | 39%26/67 | 40%35/88 | 1.22 |
| Anthony Seigler bats S · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -113 / -117 | 50% | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 39%12/31 | 50%1/2 | 38%11/29 | 0.39 |
| Ben Williamson bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -170 / +128 | 59% | 40%4/10 | 50%10/20 | 60%49/82 | 63%17/27 | 58%32/55 | 0.85 |
| Caleb Durbin bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -170 / +128 | 59% | 60%6/10 | 55%11/20 | 58%82/141 | 51%21/41 | 61%61/100 | 0.87 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -249 / +184 | 67% | 60%6/10 | 55%11/20 | 60%197/326 | 58%54/93 | 61%143/233 | 0.89 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +130 / -170 | 41% | 40%4/10 | 25%5/20 | 36%116/326 | 38%35/93 | 35%81/233 | 1.44 |
| Cedric Mullins bats L · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -120 / -110 | 51% | 40%4/10 | 30%6/20 | 55%211/383 | 54%45/84 | 56%166/299 | 0.77 |
| Jarren Duran bats L · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -204 / +152 | 63% | 60%6/10 | 70%14/20 | 71%294/414 | 68%65/96 | 72%229/318 | 1.08 |
| Jarren Duran bats L · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +136 / -180 | 40% | 20%2/10 | 45%9/20 | 46%192/414 | 44%42/96 | 47%150/318 | 1.85 |
| Jonathan Aranda bats L · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -157 / +118 | 57% | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 61%113/184 | 56%15/27 | 62%98/157 | 0.91 |
| Junior Caminero bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -216 / +160 | 64% | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 66%135/206 | 61%38/62 | 67%97/144 | 1.01 |
| Junior Caminero bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +120 / -157 | 43% | 40%4/10 | 45%9/20 | 43%88/206 | 37%23/62 | 45%65/144 | 1.96 |
| Marcelo Mayer bats L · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -131 / -102 | 53% | 60%6/10 | 50%10/20 | 48%20/42 | 11%1/9 | 58%19/33 | 0.69 |
| Masataka Yoshida bats L · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -206 / +154 | 63% | 90%9/10 | 70%14/20 | 64%194/304 | 69%37/54 | 63%157/250 | 1.04 |
| Mickey Gasper bats S · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -156 / +117 | 57% | 50%5/10 | 30%6/20 | 22%11/49 | 11%2/18 | 29%9/31 | 0.31 |
| Nick Fortes bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -116 / -115 | 50% | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 48%136/286 | 49%55/112 | 47%81/174 | 0.63 |
| Ryan Vilade bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -159 / +120 | 57% | 10%1/10 | 25%5/20 | 29%6/21 | 33%4/12 | 22%2/9 | 0.43 |
| Taylor Walls bats S · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -129 / -103 | 53% | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 50%127/256 | 57%39/69 | 47%88/187 | 0.64 |
| Willson Contreras bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -214 / +159 | 64% | 70%7/10 | 60%12/20 | 65%215/331 | 67%62/92 | 64%153/239 | 0.96 |
| Willson Contreras bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +130 / -170 | 41% | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 41%135/331 | 42%39/92 | 40%96/239 | 1.69 |
| Wilyer Abreu bats L · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -223 / +165 | 65% | 40%4/10 | 45%9/20 | 51%137/268 | 54%13/24 | 51%124/244 | 0.81 |
| Wilyer Abreu bats L · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +131 / -170 | 41% | 20%2/10 | 35%7/20 | 35%94/268 | 21%5/24 | 36%89/244 | 1.47 |
| Yandy Diaz bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Hits | O 1.5 | +175 / -237 | 34% | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 34%148/432 | 31%36/117 | 36%112/315 | 1.17 |
| Yandy Diaz bats R · BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | -105 / -125 | 48% | 40%4/10 | 45%9/20 | 45%195/432 | 44%51/117 | 46%144/315 | 1.83 |
Pitcher strikeout props
starter K line · times he actually cleared it · the model view lives in the K engine| Pitcher | Line | O / U | Mkt O% | L10 | L20 | Season | Avg Ks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | O 6.5 | +105 / -134 | 46% | 30%3/10 | 45%9/20 | 47%44/94 | 6.3 |
| Trevor Rogers SEA @ BAL · 6:35 PM ET | O 4.5 | -135 / +106 | 54% | 90%9/10 | 75%15/20 | 55%26/47 | 4.7 |
| Payton Tolle BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | O 5.5 | -128 / +100 | 53% | 13%1/8 | 13%1/8 | 13%1/8 | 2.4 |
| Nick Martinez BOS @ TB · 6:40 PM ET | O 3.5 | -144 / +113 | 56% | 0%0/10 | 25%5/20 | 21%31/146 | 2.3 |
The rest of the slate
13 more games of graded props · members onlyLAD @ PIT
6:40 PM ET · PNC Park
AZ @ MIA
6:40 PM ET · loanDepot park
MIN @ DET
6:40 PM ET · Comerica Park
NYY @ CLE
6:40 PM ET · Progressive Field
PHI @ TOR
7:07 PM ET · Rogers Centre
STL @ NYM
7:10 PM ET · Citi Field
TEX @ KC
7:40 PM ET · Kauffman Stadium
ATL @ CWS
7:40 PM ET · Rate Field
CHC @ COL
8:40 PM ET · Coors Field
HOU @ LAA
9:38 PM ET · Angel Stadium
CIN @ SD
9:40 PM ET · Petco Park
WSH @ SF
9:45 PM ET · Oracle Park
MIL @ ATH
10:05 PM ET · Las Vegas Ballpark
How to read this board. The line is the consensus (median) posted OVER line across books; O/U is the best available price at that line. Hit rates are the share of games the player actually cleared that number, graded from pitch-level Statcast · x/n is shown on every cell because a 3-for-4 streak is not a 30-for-40 season. Mkt O% is the de-vigged implied over from the consensus prices. Platoon splits are vs the hand most faced per game, never vs today's specific pitcher. All of it is descriptive context · we never sell a pick.