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Research · MLB props
Prop screener
Every posted batter prop and pitcher-K prop on the slate versus its consensus line, graded the way the cockpit grades them: how often the player actually cleared this number, over the last 10, last 20, and the season, with the sample on every cell. History versus a posted line is context, not a pick. We research, you decide.
Batter props
consensus line per market · cleared-the-line rate, x/n on every cell21+ · descriptive history vs a posted number · never a pick · hit rate vs the line + platoon split, not vs today's pitcher
| Player | Market | Line | O / U best | Mkt O% | L10 | L20 | Season | vs LHP | vs RHP | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -165 / +134 | 59% | 40%4/10 | 60%12/20 | 70%257/368 | 67%59/88 | 71%198/280 | 1.09 |
| Austin Riley bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +575 / · | · | 20%2/10 | 20%4/20 | 19%70/368 | 20%18/88 | 19%52/280 | 0.2 |
| Bryce Eldridge bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -171 / +128 | 59% | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 | 20%2/10 | ·n=0 | 20%2/10 | 0.3 |
| Bryce Eldridge bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +525 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 0%0/10 | 0%0/10 | ·n=0 | 0%0/10 | 0 |
| Casey Schmitt bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -254 / +187 | 67% | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 50%109/216 | 42%43/103 | 58%66/113 | 0.71 |
| Casey Schmitt bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +425 / · | · | 20%2/10 | 15%3/20 | 10%22/216 | 12%12/103 | 9%10/113 | 0.11 |
| Casey Schmitt bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +110 / -144 | 45% | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 28%61/216 | 28%29/103 | 28%32/113 | 1.19 |
| Dominic Smith bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -189 / +141 | 61% | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 62%186/299 | 63%34/54 | 62%152/245 | 0.86 |
| Dominic Smith bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +750 / · | · | 20%2/10 | 10%2/20 | 8%23/299 | 4%2/54 | 9%21/245 | 0.08 |
| Drake Baldwin bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -228 / +169 | 65% | 90%9/10 | 70%14/20 | 62%75/121 | 69%11/16 | 61%64/105 | 0.92 |
| Drake Baldwin bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +500 / · | · | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 15%18/121 | 19%3/16 | 14%15/105 | 0.16 |
| Drake Baldwin bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +117 / -157 | 43% | 80%8/10 | 55%11/20 | 39%47/121 | 50%8/16 | 37%39/105 | 1.57 |
| Drew Gilbert bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -113 / -118 | 49% | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 35%12/34 | 0%0/5 | 41%12/29 | 0.56 |
| Drew Gilbert bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +1100 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 10%2/20 | 9%3/34 | 0%0/5 | 10%3/29 | 0.09 |
| Jung Hoo Lee bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 1.5 | +191 / -260 | 32% | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 24%44/184 | 22%12/54 | 25%32/130 | 1.02 |
| Jung Hoo Lee bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +1300 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 5%1/20 | 5%9/184 | 2%1/54 | 6%8/130 | 0.05 |
| Jung Hoo Lee bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +130 / -164 | 41% | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 38%70/184 | 31%17/54 | 41%53/130 | 1.5 |
| Luis Arraez bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 1.5 | +170 / -229 | 35% | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 36%167/458 | 30%37/124 | 39%130/334 | 1.3 |
| Luis Arraez bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +1300 / · | · | 10%1/10 | 5%1/20 | 5%21/458 | 3%4/124 | 5%17/334 | 0.05 |
| Luis Arraez bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +120 / -155 | 43% | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 45%205/458 | 40%49/124 | 47%156/334 | 1.69 |
| Matt Chapman bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -181 / +136 | 60% | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 61%258/421 | 60%63/105 | 62%195/316 | 0.88 |
| Matt Chapman bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +575 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 5%1/20 | 14%61/421 | 11%12/105 | 16%49/316 | 0.15 |
| Matt Olson bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -193 / +144 | 62% | 50%5/10 | 65%13/20 | 69%330/480 | 68%84/124 | 69%246/356 | 1.03 |
| Matt Olson bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +425 / · | · | 20%2/10 | 40%8/20 | 21%100/480 | 21%26/124 | 21%74/356 | 0.23 |
| Mauricio Dubon bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -216 / +161 | 64% | 40%4/10 | 45%9/20 | 64%242/380 | 61%76/124 | 65%166/256 | 0.89 |
| Mauricio Dubon bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +1100 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 0%0/20 | 5%19/380 | 5%6/124 | 5%13/256 | 0.06 |
| Michael Harris II bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -238 / +176 | 66% | 80%8/10 | 60%12/20 | 66%266/403 | 69%74/108 | 65%192/295 | 1.04 |
| Michael Harris II bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +500 / · | · | 20%2/10 | 10%2/20 | 12%49/403 | 8%9/108 | 14%40/295 | 0.14 |
| Mike Yastrzemski bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -133 / +100 | 53% | 60%6/10 | 55%11/20 | 53%202/381 | 48%32/67 | 54%170/314 | 0.75 |
| Mike Yastrzemski bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +850 / · | · | 10%1/10 | 5%1/20 | 13%48/381 | 7%5/67 | 14%43/314 | 0.13 |
| Mike Yastrzemski bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Total bases | O 0.5 | -130 / +100 | 53% | 60%6/10 | 55%11/20 | 53%202/381 | 48%32/67 | 54%170/314 | 1.38 |
| Ozzie Albies bats S · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -205 / +153 | 63% | 60%6/10 | 65%13/20 | 69%276/399 | 76%78/103 | 67%198/296 | 1.05 |
| Ozzie Albies bats S · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +750 / · | · | 0%0/10 | 15%3/20 | 14%55/399 | 13%13/103 | 14%42/296 | 0.15 |
| Rafael Devers bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -205 / +153 | 63% | 80%8/10 | 65%13/20 | 65%291/447 | 66%85/129 | 65%206/318 | 1.01 |
| Rafael Devers bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +575 / · | · | 40%4/10 | 20%4/20 | 19%87/447 | 16%21/129 | 21%66/318 | 0.21 |
| Rafael Devers bats L · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Total bases | O 1.5 | +150 / -197 | 38% | 60%6/10 | 35%7/20 | 44%196/447 | 42%54/129 | 45%142/318 | 1.91 |
| Willy Adames bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Hits | O 0.5 | -174 / +131 | 59% | 60%6/10 | 55%11/20 | 59%280/473 | 54%68/127 | 61%212/346 | 0.87 |
| Willy Adames bats R · SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | Home runs | O 0.5 | +500 / · | · | 20%2/10 | 15%3/20 | 16%76/473 | 12%15/127 | 18%61/346 | 0.18 |
Pitcher strikeout props
starter K line · times he actually cleared it · the model view lives in the K engine| Pitcher | Line | O / U | Mkt O% | L10 | L20 | Season | Avg Ks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landen Roupp SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | O 5.5 | +124 / -157 | 42% | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 16%7/45 | 3.3 |
| Martin Perez SF @ ATL · 7:15 PM ET | O 4.5 | +107 / -135 | 46% | 40%4/10 | 45%9/20 | 29%22/75 | 3.3 |
How to read this board. The line is the consensus (median) posted OVER line across books; O/U is the best available price at that line. Hit rates are the share of games the player actually cleared that number, graded from pitch-level Statcast · x/n is shown on every cell because a 3-for-4 streak is not a 30-for-40 season. Mkt O% is the de-vigged implied over from the consensus prices. Platoon splits are vs the hand most faced per game, never vs today's specific pitcher. All of it is descriptive context · we never sell a pick.