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LAA @ AZ
The Read The research is split on the total (1 over / 1 under), and leans AZ on the side (2 angles). Strongest: Chase Field went over 55% historically (n=246). All of this is descriptive historical context — the market already prices it, so treat it as input for your own call, not a validated edge.
↗ Share this read Active angles · 5 found · descriptive historical context
moderate
overChase Field went over 55% historically (n=246)
Historical 55% · n=246
lean
Roof closed — weather is a non-factor
lean
underLAA have gone under in 7 of their last 10
lean
AZAZ are 22-14 at home this season
Historical 61% · n=36
lean
AZLAA are 12-24 on the road this season
Historical 33% · n=36
Line shopping — best available price per side · 11 books tracked · not a pick
Total (O/U) · over Best: 8.5 -111 @ mybookieag −0.9% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 8.5 (median across 11 books)
8.5-115 betmgm 8.5-117 betonlineag 8.5-113 betrivers 8.5-115 betus 8.5-115 bovada 8.5-114 draftkings 8.5-115 fanatics 8.5-114 fanduel 8.5-115 lowvig 8.5-111 mybookieag 8.5-115 williamhill_us
Total (O/U) · under Best: 8.5 +100 @ lowvig −1.2% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 8.5 (median across 11 books)
8.5-105 betmgm 8.5-103 betonlineag 8.5-110 betrivers 8.5-105 betus 8.5-105 bovada 8.5-106 draftkings 8.5-105 fanatics 8.5-106 fanduel 8.5+100 lowvig 8.5-110 mybookieag 8.5-105 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · under Best: 4.5 -108 @ fanduel −1.6% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 4.5 (median across 7 books)
4.5-118 betmgm 4.5-110 betonlineag 4.5-115 betus 4.5-115 bovada 4.5-108 fanduel 4.5-110 mybookieag 4.5-125 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · over Best: 4.5 -105 @ williamhill_us −1.4% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 4.5 (median across 7 books)
4.5-110 betmgm 4.5-110 betonlineag 4.5-115 betus 4.5-115 bovada 4.5-120 fanduel 4.5-111 mybookieag 4.5-105 williamhill_us
Run line · home Best: -1.5 +185 @ lowvig −28.9% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 11 books)
1.5-190 betmgm -1.5+183 betonlineag 1.5-180 betrivers -1.5+184 betus 1.5-175 bovada 1.5-188 draftkings 1.5-180 fanatics 1.5-178 fanduel -1.5+185 lowvig 1.5-181 mybookieag -1.5+180 williamhill_us
Run line · away Best: -1.5 +154 @ betmgm −1.3% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: -1.5 (median across 11 books)
-1.5+154 betmgm 1.5-215 betonlineag -1.5+143 betrivers 1.5-215 betus -1.5+150 bovada -1.5+154 draftkings -1.5+150 fanatics -1.5+146 fanduel 1.5-213 lowvig -1.5+153 mybookieag 1.5-220 williamhill_us
Line shopping is market-neutral — no prediction implied. The best price reduces the vig you pay, regardless of outcome. Pregame prices captured at/before first pitch.
Research display — lines across books, not a pick. Best price highlighted per side. Line shopping reduces vig; no outcome is implied.
Corbin Carroll
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+115bovada 1.5+112draftkings 1.5+115fanatics 1.5+105williamhill_us −0.3% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-150bovada 1.5-149draftkings 1.5-150fanatics 1.5-139williamhill_us −1.8% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-212draftkings
under Best 0.5+158draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+425williamhill_us
Denzer Guzman
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+750williamhill_us
Donovan Walton
Hits
over Best 0.5-187draftkings 0.5-170fanatics −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
under Best 0.5+140draftkings 0.5+130fanatics −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Gabriel Moreno
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+125bovada 1.5+124draftkings 1.5+127williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-165bovada 1.5-166draftkings 1.5-170williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-239draftkings
under Best 0.5+177draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
Geraldo Perdomo
Hits
over Best 0.5-166draftkings
under Best 0.5+124draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Jo Adell
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+100bovada 1.5-101draftkings 1.5+101williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-130bovada 1.5-132draftkings 1.5-134williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+197draftkings
under Best 1.5-269draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+330williamhill_us
Ketel Marte
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+105bovada 1.5+102draftkings 1.5+100williamhill_us −0.7% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-135bovada 1.5-136draftkings 1.5-134williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-272draftkings
under Best 0.5+200draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+320williamhill_us
Logan O'Hoppe
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+135bovada 1.5+134draftkings 1.5+142williamhill_us −1.2% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-180bovada 1.5-180draftkings 1.5-193williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-191draftkings
under Best 0.5+143draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
LuJames Groover
Hits
over Best 0.5-151draftkings
under Best 0.5+114draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1100williamhill_us
Mike Trout
Total Bases
over Best 1.5-115bovada 1.5-114draftkings 1.5-110williamhill_us −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-115bovada 1.5-117draftkings 1.5-121williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+189draftkings
under Best 1.5-256draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+330williamhill_us
Nick Madrigal
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+145bovada 1.5+143draftkings 1.5+138williamhill_us −0.3% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-190bovada 1.5-191draftkings 1.5-190williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-225draftkings
under Best 0.5+167draftkings
Nolan Arenado
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+135bovada 1.5+133draftkings 1.5+131williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-180bovada 1.5-178draftkings 1.5-176williamhill_us −0.3% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-209draftkings
under Best 0.5+156draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
Nolan Schanuel
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+150bovada 1.5+150draftkings 1.5+144williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-200bovada 1.5-202draftkings 1.5-197williamhill_us −0.3% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-232draftkings
under Best 0.5+172draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Oswald Peraza
Hits
over Best 0.5-187draftkings
under Best 0.5+140draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+625williamhill_us
Pavin Smith
Hits
over Best 0.5-113draftkings
under Best 0.5-117draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Ryan Waldschmidt
Hits
over Best 0.5-156draftkings
under Best 0.5+118draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Ryne Nelson
Strikeouts
over Best 4.5-160bovada 4.5-146draftkings 4.5-145fanatics 4.5-150fanduel −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
under Best 4.5+120bovada 4.5+114draftkings 4.5+110fanatics 4.5+122fanduel −1% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
Tommy Troy
Hits
over Best 0.5-135draftkings
under Best 0.5+102draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Wade Meckler
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+135bovada 1.5+136draftkings 1.5+131williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-180bovada 1.5-182draftkings 1.5-176williamhill_us −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-232draftkings
under Best 0.5+172draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Walbert Urena
Strikeouts
over Best 4.5+110bovada 4.5+119draftkings 4.5+114fanduel −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
under Best 4.5-145bovada 4.5-153draftkings 4.5-140fanduel −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
Zach Neto
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+110bovada 1.5+106draftkings 1.5+105williamhill_us −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-145bovada 1.5-141draftkings 1.5-139williamhill_us −0.3% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-229draftkings
under Best 0.5+170draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+425williamhill_us
What we've tested that touches this matchup
Rejected (graveyard) · 38
rejectedCFB full-game totals close under the no-vig closing total at ≥54% in games where either team's prior game had a final margin ≥28 points, 2015–2025 regular season (n≥200), because book-setters and public bettors anchor the next-game total on the extreme prior outcome, inflating it above the team's sustainable scoring rate.
Stern (1991) established that the spread equals the market''s unbiased expectation of the final margin. His model implies that any deviation — where the closing total consistently exceeds the true expected total — must c
rejectedBig Ten, MAC, or Mountain West home teams cover ATS at ≥54% vs same-conference road opponents when game-time temperature ≤40°F in regular-season games October–December (2021–2025, 2020 excluded, n≥60 qualifying games pooled), because cold-weather home-field advantage persists in intra-conference play through venue familiarity, weekly practice conditions, and geographic sub-division temperature variance even when both programs are cold-weather-accustomed.
H38 original (hypothesis_id=38) was untestable: non-conference scheduling clusters in September, leaving 0 warm-weather visitors in October–December games. Reformulation preserves the core mechanism (cold-weather HFA) wh
rejectedFirst-inning totals close under the no-vig first-inning line at >= 54% in MLB games where a right-handed starting pitcher faces a batting lineup with >= 6 right-handed batters in positions 1-5, 2022-2025 regular season (n >= 100), because first-inning lines anchor on aggregate starter ERA rather than platoon-adjusted ERA and the documented RHB-vs-RHP wOBA penalty (~25-30 points) is large enough to compress first-inning scoring below the implied total.
Platoon effects are among the most replicated findings in sabermetrics: right-handed batters face RHP with roughly 20-30 wOBA points of suppression compared to left-handed batters in the same matchup. First-inning total
rejectedMLB F5 totals exceed the closing F5 line at >= 54% in starts where the starting pitcher's season-to-date FIP exceeds their ERA by >= 1.0 run AND the pitcher's season-to-date ground-ball rate is less than 45%, 2020-2025 regular season (n >= 75), because extreme ground-ball pitchers legitimately suppress BABIP through contact-type profile and should be excluded from FIP-ERA regression signals — the over edge in H39 is concentrated in fly-ball and neutral-profile starters where the FIP-ERA gap is pure BABIP luck.
McCracken (2001) DIPS theory establishes that BABIP is largely outside pitcher control and reverts to mean (~.300). However, post-2001 research (FanGraphs BABIP methodology) showed ground-ball pitchers structurally suppr
rejectedMLB F5 totals exceed the closing F5 line at ≥54% in starts where the starting pitcher's season-to-date FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) exceeds their ERA by ≥1.0 run AND the pitcher has thrown ≥40 innings in the season, 2020–2025 regular season (n≥100), because MLB betting lines anchor on ERA as the headline visible metric while FIP — which strips out defense, luck on balls in play, and strand-rate sequencing — better predicts future run-allowing; pitchers outperforming their FIP are statistically likely to allow more runs than ERA-based line-setting anticipates.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) removes defense and sequencing luck from ERA, retaining only strikeouts, walks, HBP, and home runs — the batted-ball outcomes a pitcher directly controls. FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectu
rejectedMLB full-game totals close under the no-vig closing line at ≥54% in games where either team's bullpen recorded ≥20 outs the prior calendar day, 2021–2025 regular season (n≥150), because prior-day depletion reduces next-game high-leverage arm availability below what aggregate bullpen ERA implies and oddsmakers do not adjust the closing total for day-specific arm unavailability.
Post-hoc reversal of rejected H40 (over direction). OOS 2025: 41.27% over rate vs 48.95% baseline, n=199, z=–2.17, p=0.030 (two-tailed). Implied under win rate: 58.73%. 2024 in-sample directionally consistent (47.92% ove
Every angle we test is logged — including the ones we reject. See the full record in The Lab →