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PIT @ ATH
The Read The research leans UNDER on the total (3 to 1). Strongest: Sutter Health Park went over 53% historically (n=81). All of this is descriptive historical context — the market already prices it, so treat it as input for your own call, not a validated edge.
↗ Share this read Active angles · 6 found · descriptive historical context
moderate
overSutter Health Park went over 53% historically (n=81)
Historical 53% · n=81
lean
underLine moved: total dropped 2.0 runs (12.5 → 10.5) since open
lean
Highest total on today's board (10.5) — market context only
lean
underATH have gone under in 7 of their last 10
lean
underPIT have gone under in 7 of their last 10
lean
ATHPIT have lost 8 of their last 10 (straight up)
Line shopping — best available price per side · 11 books tracked · not a pick
Total (O/U) · under Best: 10.5 +102 @ fanduel −2.9% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 11 (median across 11 books)
11-118 betmgm 11-110 betonlineag 10.5-105 betrivers 11-110 betus 11-115 bovada 11-112 draftkings 11-115 fanatics 10.5+102 fanduel 11-107 lowvig 11-112 mybookieag 11-110 williamhill_us
Total (O/U) · over Best: 11 -102 @ betmgm −1.4% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 11 (median across 11 books)
11-102 betmgm 11-110 betonlineag 10.5-120 betrivers 11-110 betus 11-105 bovada 11-108 draftkings 11-105 fanatics 10.5-124 fanduel 11-107 lowvig 11-107 mybookieag 11-110 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · over Best: 6 -104 @ mybookieag −2.5% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 6 (median across 7 books)
6-118 betmgm 6-115 betonlineag 6-115 betus 6-110 bovada 5.5-140 fanduel 6-104 mybookieag 6-115 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · under Best: 5.5 +108 @ fanduel −5.4% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 6 (median across 7 books)
6-110 betmgm 6-105 betonlineag 6-115 betus 6-120 bovada 5.5+108 fanduel 6-118 mybookieag 6-115 williamhill_us
Run line · home Best: -1.5 +142 @ fanduel −2.2% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: -1.5 (median across 11 books)
-1.5+125 betmgm -1.5+128 betonlineag -1.5+135 betrivers -1.5+130 betus -1.5+135 bovada -1.5+130 draftkings -1.5+130 fanatics -1.5+142 fanduel -1.5+130 lowvig -1.5+131 mybookieag -1.5+130 williamhill_us
Run line · away Best: 1.5 -147 @ lowvig −1.3% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 11 books)
1.5-155 betmgm 1.5-148 betonlineag 1.5-167 betrivers 1.5-150 betus 1.5-160 bovada 1.5-157 draftkings 1.5-155 fanatics 1.5-172 fanduel 1.5-147 lowvig 1.5-155 mybookieag 1.5-155 williamhill_us
Line shopping is market-neutral — no prediction implied. The best price reduces the vig you pay, regardless of outcome. Pregame prices captured at/before first pitch.
Research display — lines across books, not a pick. Best price highlighted per side. Line shopping reduces vig; no outcome is implied.
Brandon Lowe
Total Bases
over Best 1.5-103williamhill_us
under Best 1.5-130williamhill_us
Hits
over Best 0.5-237draftkings
under Best 0.5+176draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+305williamhill_us
Bryan Reynolds
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+110williamhill_us
under Best 1.5-148williamhill_us
Hits
over Best 1.5+195draftkings
under Best 1.5-265draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Carlos Cortes
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+135bovada 1.5+132draftkings 1.5+127williamhill_us −0.6% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-180bovada 1.5-176draftkings 1.5-170williamhill_us −0.8% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-198draftkings
under Best 0.5+148draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Endy Rodriguez
Hits
over Best 0.5-203draftkings
under Best 0.5+151draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+575williamhill_us
Henry Bolte
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+145bovada 1.5+142draftkings 1.5+135fanatics 1.5+131williamhill_us −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-190bovada 1.5-190draftkings 1.5-180fanatics 1.5-176williamhill_us −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-217draftkings
under Best 0.5+161draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
Jacob Wilson
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+130bovada 1.5+127draftkings 1.5+118williamhill_us −0.6% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-170bovada 1.5-170draftkings 1.5-157williamhill_us −1.9% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+195draftkings
under Best 1.5-265draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Jake Mangum
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+125williamhill_us
under Best 1.5-170williamhill_us
Hits
over Best 1.5+175draftkings
under Best 1.5-236draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1100williamhill_us
Jared Jones
Strikeouts
over Best 4.5-145bovada 4.5-154draftkings 4.5-150fanatics 4.5-142fanduel −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
under Best 4.5+110bovada 4.5+120draftkings 4.5+115fanatics 4.5+116fanduel −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
Jared Triolo
Hits
over Best 0.5-160draftkings
under Best 0.5+120draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
JT Ginn
Strikeouts
over Best 4.5-105bovada 4.5+101draftkings 4.5+100fanduel consensus 4.5
under Best 4.5-125bovada 4.5-129draftkings 4.5-122fanduel −0.6% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
Lawrence Butler
Hits
over Best 0.5-165draftkings
under Best 0.5+124draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+425williamhill_us
Max Muncy (2002)
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+400williamhill_us
Nick Gonzales
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+111williamhill_us
under Best 1.5-148williamhill_us
Hits
over Best 1.5+181draftkings
under Best 1.5-246draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Nick Kurtz
Total Bases
over Best 1.5-105bovada 1.5-105draftkings 1.5-108williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-125bovada 1.5-126draftkings 1.5-124williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-228draftkings
under Best 0.5+169draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+225williamhill_us
Ryan O'Hearn
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+118williamhill_us
under Best 1.5-157williamhill_us
Hits
over Best 0.5-245draftkings
under Best 0.5+181draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
Shea Langeliers
Total Bases
over Best 1.5-110bovada 1.5-112draftkings 1.5-117williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-120bovada 1.5-119draftkings 1.5-114williamhill_us −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+192draftkings
under Best 1.5-261draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+245williamhill_us
Spencer Horwitz
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+112williamhill_us
under Best 1.5-150williamhill_us
Hits
over Best 1.5+195draftkings
under Best 1.5-266draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
Tyler Callihan
Hits
over Best 0.5-169draftkings
under Best 0.5+127draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
Tyler Soderstrom
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+115bovada 1.5+113draftkings 1.5+102williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-150bovada 1.5-151draftkings 1.5-136williamhill_us −2.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-236draftkings
under Best 0.5+174draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+370williamhill_us
Zack Gelof
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+130bovada 1.5+131draftkings 1.5+128williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-170bovada 1.5-175draftkings 1.5-173williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-206draftkings 0.5-200fanatics −0.3% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
under Best 0.5+153draftkings 0.5+150fanatics consensus 0.5
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
What we've tested that touches this matchup
Rejected (graveyard) · 38
rejectedCFB full-game totals close under the no-vig closing total at ≥54% in games where either team's prior game had a final margin ≥28 points, 2015–2025 regular season (n≥200), because book-setters and public bettors anchor the next-game total on the extreme prior outcome, inflating it above the team's sustainable scoring rate.
Stern (1991) established that the spread equals the market''s unbiased expectation of the final margin. His model implies that any deviation — where the closing total consistently exceeds the true expected total — must c
rejectedBig Ten, MAC, or Mountain West home teams cover ATS at ≥54% vs same-conference road opponents when game-time temperature ≤40°F in regular-season games October–December (2021–2025, 2020 excluded, n≥60 qualifying games pooled), because cold-weather home-field advantage persists in intra-conference play through venue familiarity, weekly practice conditions, and geographic sub-division temperature variance even when both programs are cold-weather-accustomed.
H38 original (hypothesis_id=38) was untestable: non-conference scheduling clusters in September, leaving 0 warm-weather visitors in October–December games. Reformulation preserves the core mechanism (cold-weather HFA) wh
rejectedFirst-inning totals close under the no-vig first-inning line at >= 54% in MLB games where a right-handed starting pitcher faces a batting lineup with >= 6 right-handed batters in positions 1-5, 2022-2025 regular season (n >= 100), because first-inning lines anchor on aggregate starter ERA rather than platoon-adjusted ERA and the documented RHB-vs-RHP wOBA penalty (~25-30 points) is large enough to compress first-inning scoring below the implied total.
Platoon effects are among the most replicated findings in sabermetrics: right-handed batters face RHP with roughly 20-30 wOBA points of suppression compared to left-handed batters in the same matchup. First-inning total
rejectedMLB F5 totals exceed the closing F5 line at >= 54% in starts where the starting pitcher's season-to-date FIP exceeds their ERA by >= 1.0 run AND the pitcher's season-to-date ground-ball rate is less than 45%, 2020-2025 regular season (n >= 75), because extreme ground-ball pitchers legitimately suppress BABIP through contact-type profile and should be excluded from FIP-ERA regression signals — the over edge in H39 is concentrated in fly-ball and neutral-profile starters where the FIP-ERA gap is pure BABIP luck.
McCracken (2001) DIPS theory establishes that BABIP is largely outside pitcher control and reverts to mean (~.300). However, post-2001 research (FanGraphs BABIP methodology) showed ground-ball pitchers structurally suppr
rejectedMLB F5 totals exceed the closing F5 line at ≥54% in starts where the starting pitcher's season-to-date FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) exceeds their ERA by ≥1.0 run AND the pitcher has thrown ≥40 innings in the season, 2020–2025 regular season (n≥100), because MLB betting lines anchor on ERA as the headline visible metric while FIP — which strips out defense, luck on balls in play, and strand-rate sequencing — better predicts future run-allowing; pitchers outperforming their FIP are statistically likely to allow more runs than ERA-based line-setting anticipates.
Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) removes defense and sequencing luck from ERA, retaining only strikeouts, walks, HBP, and home runs — the batted-ball outcomes a pitcher directly controls. FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectu
rejectedMLB full-game totals close under the no-vig closing line at ≥54% in games where either team's bullpen recorded ≥20 outs the prior calendar day, 2021–2025 regular season (n≥150), because prior-day depletion reduces next-game high-leverage arm availability below what aggregate bullpen ERA implies and oddsmakers do not adjust the closing total for day-specific arm unavailability.
Post-hoc reversal of rejected H40 (over direction). OOS 2025: 41.27% over rate vs 48.95% baseline, n=199, z=–2.17, p=0.030 (two-tailed). Implied under win rate: 58.73%. 2024 in-sample directionally consistent (47.92% ove
Every angle we test is logged — including the ones we reject. See the full record in The Lab →