← Slate · Game detail
SF @ ATL
The Read The research is split on the total (0 over / 1 under), and leans ATL on the side (2 angles). Strongest: Truist Park went under 54% historically (n=241). This is researched historical context to sharpen your own read — the market sees it too, so weigh it as input, not a settled edge.
↗ Share this read 3 active angles on this game · across every market
Moneyline 2
lean
ATLATL are 22-11 at home this season
Historical 67% · n=33
lean
ATLSF are 15-23 on the road this season
Historical 40% · n=38
Total · Over / Under 1
moderate
underTruist Park went under 54% historically (n=241)
Historical 54% · n=241
Line shopping — best available price per side · 11 books tracked · not a pick
Total (O/U) · over Best: 12.5 +100 @ fanatics −2.6% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 12.5 (median across 11 books)
12.5-110 betmgm 9-112 betonlineag 12.5-118 betrivers 9-110 betus 12.5-115 bovada 12.5-113 draftkings 12.5+100 fanatics 12.5-104 fanduel 9-109 lowvig 12.5-111 mybookieag 12.5-120 williamhill_us
Total (O/U) · under Best: 9 -105 @ lowvig −2.3% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 12.5 (median across 11 books)
12.5-115 betmgm 9-108 betonlineag 12.5-120 betrivers 9-110 betus 12.5-115 bovada 12.5-115 draftkings 12.5-130 fanatics 12.5-128 fanduel 9-105 lowvig 12.5-125 mybookieag 12.5-110 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · over Best: 8.5 +114 @ fanduel −5.4% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 8.5 (median across 7 books)
8.5-110 betmgm 5-105 betonlineag 5-115 betus 8.5-105 bovada 8.5+114 fanduel 5-115 mybookieag 8.5-109 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · under Best: 5 -105 @ mybookieag −3.3% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 8.5 (median across 7 books)
8.5-120 betmgm 5-115 betonlineag 5-115 betus 8.5-125 bovada 8.5-152 fanduel 5-105 mybookieag 8.5-125 williamhill_us
Run line · away Best: -1.5 +180 @ williamhill_us −26.5% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 11 books)
1.5-210 betmgm 1.5-140 betonlineag 1-139 betrivers 1.5-140 betus 1-165 bovada 1.5-200 draftkings 1.5-215 fanatics 1.5-220 fanduel 1.5-138 lowvig 1.5-200 mybookieag -1.5+180 williamhill_us
Run line · home Best: -1.5 +162 @ fanduel −6.3% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: -1.5 (median across 11 books)
-1.5+160 betmgm -1.5+120 betonlineag -1+102 betrivers -1.5+120 betus -1+125 bovada -1.5+151 draftkings -1.5+160 fanatics -1.5+162 fanduel -1.5+122 lowvig -1.5+150 mybookieag 1.5-230 williamhill_us
Line shopping is market-neutral — no prediction implied. The best price reduces the vig you pay, regardless of outcome. Pregame prices captured at/before first pitch.
Research display — lines across books, not a pick. Best price highlighted per side. Line shopping reduces vig; no outcome is implied.
Adrian Houser
Strikeouts
over Best 3.5-110bovada 3.5-103draftkings 3.5-110fanatics 3.5-105fanduel −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 3.5
under Best 3.5-120bovada 3.5-124draftkings 3.5-120fanatics 3.5-115fanduel −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 3.5
Austin Riley
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+140bovada 1.5+137draftkings 1.5+133williamhill_us −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-185bovada 1.5-183draftkings 1.5-179williamhill_us −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-200draftkings 0.5-205fanatics −0.3% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
under Best 0.5+149draftkings 0.5+155fanatics −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+425williamhill_us
Bryce Eldridge
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+116williamhill_us
under Best 1.5-154williamhill_us
Hits
over Best 0.5-189draftkings
under Best 0.5+141draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+400williamhill_us
Casey Schmitt
Hits
over Best 0.5-189draftkings
under Best 0.5+141draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+400williamhill_us
Daniel Susac
Hits
over Best 0.5-150draftkings
under Best 0.5+113draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Dominic Smith
Hits
over Best 0.5-166draftkings
under Best 0.5+124draftkings
Drake Baldwin
Total Bases
over Best 1.5-105bovada 1.5-105draftkings 1.5-108williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-125bovada 1.5-126draftkings 1.5-124williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+179draftkings
under Best 1.5-242draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+350williamhill_us
Drew Gilbert
Hits
over Best 0.5-108draftkings
under Best 0.5-123draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1100williamhill_us
Eli White
Hits
over Best 0.5-166draftkings
under Best 0.5+124draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Grant Holmes
Strikeouts
over Best 4.5+110bovada 4.5+103draftkings 4.5+116fanduel −1.3% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
under Best 4.5-145bovada 4.5-131draftkings 4.5-142fanduel −2% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
Jung Hoo Lee
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+140bovada 1.5+140draftkings 1.5+133williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-185bovada 1.5-187draftkings 1.5-179williamhill_us −0.8% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-245draftkings
under Best 0.5+181draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1300williamhill_us
Luis Arraez
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+115bovada 1.5+115draftkings 1.5+113williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-150bovada 1.5-153draftkings 1.5-150williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+177draftkings
under Best 1.5-239draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1300williamhill_us
Matt Chapman
Hits
over Best 0.5-155draftkings
under Best 0.5+117draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+575williamhill_us
Matt Olson
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+115bovada 1.5+113draftkings 1.5+112williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-150bovada 1.5-151draftkings 1.5-150williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-234draftkings
under Best 0.5+173draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+350williamhill_us
Mauricio Dubon
Hits
over Best 0.5-209draftkings
under Best 0.5+155draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Michael Harris II
Total Bases
over Best 1.5-105bovada 1.5-104draftkings 1.5-108williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-125bovada 1.5-128draftkings 1.5-124williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+177draftkings
under Best 1.5-239draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+350williamhill_us
Mike Yastrzemski
Total Bases
over Best 0.5-120fanatics
under Best 0.5-110fanatics
Hits
over Best 0.5-116draftkings
under Best 0.5-114draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+750williamhill_us
Ozzie Albies
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+120bovada 1.5+121draftkings 1.5+116williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-160bovada 1.5-161draftkings 1.5-154williamhill_us −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-251draftkings
under Best 0.5+185draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
Rafael Devers
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+140bovada 1.5+138draftkings 1.5+131williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-185bovada 1.5-185draftkings 1.5-176williamhill_us −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-183draftkings
under Best 0.5+137draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+370williamhill_us
Willy Adames
Hits
over Best 0.5-175draftkings
under Best 0.5+131draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
The research behind this read
Every angle on this game is a historical pattern measured against ~20 books, with its real sample size shown — never a win probability. 3 angles cleared our bar for this matchup, the strongest on n=241.
We backtest every idea out-of-sample and publish the ones that fail, not just the ones that work — that filter is what makes a surviving signal worth your attention.
Every angle gets logged and tested — the misses too. See the full test-and-reject record in The Lab →