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TOR @ BOS
The Read The research leans UNDER on the total (2 to 0). Strongest: Fenway Park went under 52% historically (n=236). This is researched historical context to sharpen your own read — the market sees it too, so weigh it as input, not a settled edge.
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Moneyline 2
lean
TORBOS are 12-22 at home this season
Historical 35% · n=34
lean
BOSTOR are 13-20 on the road this season
Historical 39% · n=33
Total · Over / Under 3
lean
underFenway Park went under 52% historically (n=236)
Historical 52% · n=236
lean
Lowest total on today's board (7.5) — market context only
lean
underBOS have gone under in 8 of their last 10
Line shopping — best available price per side · 11 books tracked · not a pick
Total (O/U) · under Best: 7.5 -118 @ lowvig −27.7% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 7.5 (median across 11 books)
7.5-650 betmgm 7.5-120 betonlineag 7.5-2500 betrivers 7.5-120 betus 7.5-450 bovada 7.5-356 draftkings 7.5-800 fanatics 7.5-1100 fanduel 7.5-118 lowvig 5.5-118 mybookieag 7.5-900 williamhill_us
Total (O/U) · over Best: 7.5 +550 @ fanduel −9.6% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 7.5 (median across 11 books)
7.5+425 betmgm 7.5+100 betonlineag 7.5+340 betrivers 7.5+100 betus 7.5+300 bovada 7.5+253 draftkings 7.5+500 fanatics 7.5+550 fanduel 7.5+103 lowvig 5.5-118 mybookieag 7.5+550 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · over Best: 3.5 +310 @ betmgm −29.1% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 3.5 (median across 7 books)
3.5+310 betmgm 3.5-115 betonlineag 3.5-115 betus 1.5-150 bovada 1.5-138 fanduel 4+103 mybookieag 1.5-148 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · under Best: 1.5 +115 @ bovada −4.7% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 3.5 (median across 7 books)
3.5-475 betmgm 3.5-105 betonlineag 3.5-115 betus 1.5+115 bovada 1.5+104 fanduel 4-126 mybookieag 1.5+108 williamhill_us
Run line · away Best: -1.5 +141 @ lowvig −36.6% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: -4.5 (median across 11 books)
-4.5-650 betmgm -1.5+140 betonlineag -4.5-1430 betrivers -1.5+140 betus -3-120 bovada -4.5-356 draftkings -4.5-800 fanatics -4.5-1000 fanduel -1.5+141 lowvig -2.5-286 mybookieag -4.5-900 williamhill_us
Run line · home Best: 4.5 +550 @ williamhill_us −12.9% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 4.5 (median across 11 books)
4.5+425 betmgm 1.5-160 betonlineag 4.5+370 betrivers 1.5-160 betus 3-110 bovada 4.5+253 draftkings 4.5+500 fanatics 4.5+520 fanduel 1.5-160 lowvig 2.5+195 mybookieag 4.5+550 williamhill_us
Line shopping is market-neutral — no prediction implied. The best price reduces the vig you pay, regardless of outcome. Pregame prices captured at/before first pitch.
Research display — lines across books, not a pick. Best price highlighted per side. Line shopping reduces vig; no outcome is implied.
Alejandro Kirk
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+130bovada 1.5+131draftkings 1.5+127williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-170bovada 1.5-175draftkings 1.5-170williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-231draftkings
under Best 0.5+171draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+575williamhill_us
Caleb Durbin
Hits
over Best 0.5-169draftkings
under Best 0.5+127draftkings
Ceddanne Rafaela
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+140bovada 1.5+139draftkings consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-185bovada 1.5-186draftkings consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-240draftkings
under Best 0.5+178draftkings
Charles McAdoo
Hits
over Best 0.5-136draftkings
under Best 0.5+102draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+750williamhill_us
Davis Schneider
Hits
over Best 0.5+107draftkings
under Best 0.5-142draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+700williamhill_us
Ernie Clement
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+105bovada 1.5+103draftkings 1.5+102williamhill_us −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-135bovada 1.5-137draftkings 1.5-136williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+173draftkings
under Best 1.5-233draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+625williamhill_us
George Springer
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+120bovada 1.5+121draftkings 1.5+121williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-160bovada 1.5-161draftkings 1.5-162williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-226draftkings
under Best 0.5+168draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Hits
over Best 0.5-169draftkings
under Best 0.5+127draftkings
Jarren Duran
Hits
over Best 0.5-179draftkings
under Best 0.5+134draftkings
Kazuma Okamoto
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+140bovada 1.5+137draftkings 1.5+138williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-185bovada 1.5-183draftkings 1.5-190williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-195draftkings
under Best 0.5+146draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Marcelo Mayer
Hits
over Best 0.5-120draftkings
under Best 0.5-110draftkings
Masataka Yoshida
Hits
over Best 0.5-181draftkings
under Best 0.5+136draftkings
Mickey Gasper
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+145bovada 1.5+147draftkings consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-190bovada 1.5-197draftkings −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-220draftkings
under Best 0.5+164draftkings
Myles Straw
Hits
over Best 0.5-133draftkings 0.5-140fanatics −0.6% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
under Best 0.5+101draftkings 0.5+105fanatics −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1100williamhill_us
Payton Tolle
Strikeouts
over Best 5.5+115bovada 4.5-150draftkings 4.5-160fanatics 5.5+120fanduel −30.6% implied prob vs median consensus 5
under Best 5.5-150bovada 4.5+118draftkings 4.5+120fanatics 5.5-148fanduel −32.4% implied prob vs median consensus 5
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+120bovada 1.5+121draftkings 1.5+110fanatics 1.5+115williamhill_us −0.7% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-160bovada 1.5-161draftkings 1.5-145fanatics 1.5-152williamhill_us −1.8% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-254draftkings
under Best 0.5+187draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Willson Contreras
Hits
over Best 0.5-177draftkings
under Best 0.5+133draftkings
Wilyer Abreu
Hits
over Best 0.5-184draftkings
under Best 0.5+137draftkings
Yohendrick Pinango
Hits
over Best 0.5-143draftkings
under Best 0.5+108draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
The research behind this read
Every angle on this game is a historical pattern measured against ~20 books, with its real sample size shown — never a win probability. 5 angles cleared our bar for this matchup, the strongest on n=236.
We backtest every idea out-of-sample and publish the ones that fail, not just the ones that work — that filter is what makes a surviving signal worth your attention.
Every angle gets logged and tested — the misses too. See the full test-and-reject record in The Lab →