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NYM @ CIN
The Read The research is split on the total (0 over / 1 under). Strongest: Great American Ball Park went under 56% historically (n=238). This is researched historical context to sharpen your own read — the market sees it too, so weigh it as input, not a settled edge.
↗ Share this read 3 active angles on this game · across every market
Moneyline 2
lean
NYMCIN have lost 7 of their last 10 (straight up)
lean
CINNYM are 14-22 on the road this season
Historical 39% · n=36
Total · Over / Under 1
moderate
underGreat American Ball Park went under 56% historically (n=238)
Historical 56% · n=238
Line shopping — best available price per side · 11 books tracked · not a pick
Total (O/U) · over Best: 8.5 +425 @ betmgm −8.3% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 8.5 (median across 11 books)
8.5+425 betmgm 10-113 betonlineag 8.5+300 betrivers 10-105 betus 8.5+265 bovada 8.5+359 draftkings 8.5+310 fanatics 8.5+350 fanduel 10-110 lowvig 9.5+100 mybookieag 8.5+200 williamhill_us
Total (O/U) · under Best: 10 -104 @ lowvig −28.4% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 8.5 (median across 11 books)
8.5-650 betmgm 10-107 betonlineag 8.5-1250 betrivers 10-115 betus 8.5-385 bovada 8.5-551 draftkings 8.5-450 fanatics 8.5-550 fanduel 10-104 lowvig 9.5-143 mybookieag 8.5-260 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · over Best: 5.5 +175 @ betmgm −16.9% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 5.5 (median across 7 books)
5.5+175 betmgm 5.5-103 betonlineag 5.5-115 betus 6.5-130 bovada 5.5-152 fanduel 5.5-114 mybookieag 6.5+116 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · under Best: 5.5 +114 @ fanduel −6.8% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 5.5 (median across 7 books)
5.5-235 betmgm 5.5-117 betonlineag 5.5-115 betus 6.5+100 bovada 5.5+114 fanduel 5.5-106 mybookieag 6.5-160 williamhill_us
Run line · away Best: 1.5 +425 @ betmgm −14.3% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 11 books)
1.5+425 betmgm -1.5+130 betonlineag 1.5+335 betrivers -1.5+130 betus 1.5-110 bovada 1.5+371 draftkings 1.5+340 fanatics 1.5+350 fanduel -1.5+132 lowvig 1.5+130 mybookieag 1.5+200 williamhill_us
Run line · home Best: -1.5 -120 @ bovada −17.7% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: -1.5 (median across 11 books)
-1.5-650 betmgm 1.5-150 betonlineag -1.5-1000 betrivers 1.5-150 betus -1.5-120 bovada -1.5-575 draftkings -1.5-500 fanatics -1.5-550 fanduel 1.5-149 lowvig -1.5-182 mybookieag -1.5-260 williamhill_us
Line shopping is market-neutral — no prediction implied. The best price reduces the vig you pay, regardless of outcome. Pregame prices captured at/before first pitch.
Research display — lines across books, not a pick. Best price highlighted per side. Line shopping reduces vig; no outcome is implied.
A.J. Ewing
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+140bovada 1.5+139draftkings 1.5+128williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-185bovada 1.5-186draftkings 1.5-173williamhill_us −1.5% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-217draftkings
under Best 0.5+161draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
Blake Dunn
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+140bovada 1.5+140draftkings 1.5+148williamhill_us −1.3% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-185bovada 1.5-187draftkings 1.5-200williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-204draftkings
under Best 0.5+152draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+625williamhill_us
Bo Bichette
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+110bovada 1.5+108draftkings 1.5-105williamhill_us −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-145bovada 1.5-143draftkings 1.5-127williamhill_us −2.9% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+170draftkings
under Best 1.5-229draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+575williamhill_us
Brady Singer
Strikeouts
over Best 4.5+105bovada 4.5-101draftkings 4.5+100fanatics 4.5+110fanduel −1.8% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
under Best 4.5-135bovada 4.5-126draftkings 4.5-130fanatics 4.5-134fanduel −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
Brett Baty
Hits
over Best 0.5-184draftkings
under Best 0.5+138draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
Carson Benge
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+125bovada 1.5+126draftkings 1.5+114williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-165bovada 1.5-168draftkings 1.5-152williamhill_us −1.9% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-247draftkings
under Best 0.5+183draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Edwin Arroyo
Hits
over Best 0.5-176draftkings
under Best 0.5+132draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+575williamhill_us
Eugenio Suarez
Hits
over Best 0.5-159draftkings
under Best 0.5+120draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+330williamhill_us
Francisco Alvarez
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+125bovada 1.5+124draftkings 1.5+120williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-165bovada 1.5-165draftkings 1.5-159williamhill_us −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-211draftkings
under Best 0.5+157draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+305williamhill_us
Jared Young
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+125bovada 1.5+125draftkings 1.5+121williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-165bovada 1.5-166draftkings 1.5-162williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-211draftkings
under Best 0.5+157draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+330williamhill_us
JJ Bleday
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+125fanatics
under Best 1.5-165fanatics
Hits
over Best 0.5-169draftkings 0.5-185fanatics −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
under Best 0.5+127draftkings 0.5+140fanatics −1.2% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+320williamhill_us
Juan Soto
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+100bovada 1.5+100draftkings 1.5-106williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-130bovada 1.5-133draftkings 1.5-125williamhill_us −1% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-260draftkings
under Best 0.5+192draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+220williamhill_us
Kodai Senga
Strikeouts
over Best 5.5+125bovada 5.5+120draftkings 5.5+128fanduel −0.6% implied prob vs median consensus 5.5
under Best 5.5-165bovada 5.5-153draftkings 5.5-158fanduel −0.8% implied prob vs median consensus 5.5
Marcus Semien
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+135bovada 1.5+133draftkings 1.5+127williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-180bovada 1.5-178draftkings 1.5-170williamhill_us −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-225draftkings
under Best 0.5+167draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
Matt McLain
Hits
over Best 0.5-130draftkings
under Best 0.5-102draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
MJ Melendez
Hits
over Best 0.5-120draftkings
under Best 0.5-110draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+330williamhill_us
Nathaniel Lowe
Hits
over Best 0.5-162draftkings
under Best 0.5+122draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+425williamhill_us
Sal Stewart
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+121williamhill_us
under Best 1.5-162williamhill_us
Hits
over Best 0.5-169draftkings
under Best 0.5+127draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+390williamhill_us
Spencer Steer
Hits
over Best 0.5-170draftkings
under Best 0.5+127draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+425williamhill_us
Tyler Stephenson
Hits
over Best 0.5-128draftkings
under Best 0.5-104draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
The research behind this read
Every angle on this game is a historical pattern measured against ~20 books, with its real sample size shown — never a win probability. 3 angles cleared our bar for this matchup, the strongest on n=238.
We backtest every idea out-of-sample and publish the ones that fail, not just the ones that work — that filter is what makes a surviving signal worth your attention.
Every angle gets logged and tested — the misses too. See the full test-and-reject record in The Lab →