← Slate · Game detail
TB @ LAD
The Read The research is split on the total (1 over / 0 under). Strongest: Dodger Stadium went over 58% historically (n=257). This is researched historical context to sharpen your own read — the market sees it too, so weigh it as input, not a settled edge.
↗ Share this read 2 active angles on this game · across every market
Moneyline 1
lean
LADLAD are 23-12 at home this season
Historical 66% · n=35
Total · Over / Under 1
moderate
overDodger Stadium went over 58% historically (n=257)
Historical 58% · n=257
Line shopping — best available price per side · 11 books tracked · not a pick
Total (O/U) · under Best: 2.5 +115 @ betmgm −24.9% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 11 books)
2.5+115 betmgm 8-108 betonlineag 1.5-910 betrivers 8-105 betus 1.5-435 bovada 1.5-590 draftkings 1.5-500 fanatics 1.5-550 fanduel 8-105 lowvig 1.5-250 mybookieag 3.5-105 williamhill_us
Total (O/U) · over Best: 1.5 +378 @ draftkings −15.4% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 11 books)
2.5-150 betmgm 8-112 betonlineag 1.5+280 betrivers 8-115 betus 1.5+290 bovada 1.5+378 draftkings 1.5+340 fanatics 1.5+350 fanduel 8-109 lowvig 1.5+175 mybookieag 3.5-125 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · under Best: 4 +110 @ betonlineag −5.9% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 7 books)
1.5-150 betmgm 4+110 betonlineag 4-110 betus 1.5-115 bovada 1.5-162 fanduel 4-104 mybookieag 1.5-194 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · over Best: 1.5 +139 @ williamhill_us −11.6% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 7 books)
1.5+110 betmgm 4-130 betonlineag 4-120 betus 1.5-115 bovada 1.5+122 fanduel 4-118 mybookieag 1.5+139 williamhill_us
Run line · away Best: -1.5 +1850 @ betmgm −61.5% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 11 books)
-1.5+1850 betmgm 1.5-170 betonlineag 1.5-225 betrivers 1.5-170 betus 1.5-200 bovada -1.5+1380 draftkings 1.5-200 fanatics 1.5-215 fanduel 1.5-170 lowvig 1.5-1429 mybookieag 1.5-230 williamhill_us
Run line · home Best: -1.5 +600 @ mybookieag −25.7% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: -1.5 (median across 11 books)
1.5-10000 betmgm -1.5+149 betonlineag -1.5+155 betrivers -1.5+148 betus -1.5+150 bovada 1.5-10000 draftkings -1.5+150 fanatics -1.5+158 fanduel -1.5+150 lowvig -1.5+600 mybookieag -1.5+180 williamhill_us
Line shopping is market-neutral — no prediction implied. The best price reduces the vig you pay, regardless of outcome. Pregame prices captured at/before first pitch.
Research display — lines across books, not a pick. Best price highlighted per side. Line shopping reduces vig; no outcome is implied.
Alex Freeland
Hits
over Best 0.5-105draftkings
under Best 0.5-127draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+700williamhill_us
Andy Pages
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+105bovada 1.5+105draftkings 1.5-102williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-135bovada 1.5-140draftkings 1.5-132williamhill_us −0.6% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-269draftkings
under Best 0.5+198draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+350williamhill_us
Austin Slater
Hits
over Best 0.5-135draftkings
under Best 0.5+102draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+625williamhill_us
Ben Williamson
Hits
over Best 0.5-181draftkings
under Best 0.5+136draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Cedric Mullins
Hits
over Best 0.5-137draftkings
under Best 0.5+103draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+700williamhill_us
Dalton Rushing
Hits
over Best 0.5-158draftkings
under Best 0.5+119draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+330williamhill_us
Eric Lauer
Strikeouts
over Best 3.5-120bovada 3.5-118draftkings 3.5-110fanatics 3.5-115fanduel −1.4% implied prob vs median consensus 3.5
under Best 3.5-110bovada 3.5-108draftkings 3.5-120fanatics 3.5-105fanduel −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 3.5
Freddie Freeman
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+110bovada 1.5+107draftkings 1.5-102williamhill_us −0.7% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-145bovada 1.5-141draftkings 1.5-132williamhill_us −1.6% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+195draftkings
under Best 1.5-265draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+390williamhill_us
Jonathan Aranda
Hits
over Best 0.5-197draftkings
under Best 0.5+147draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
Junior Caminero
Total Bases
over Best 1.5-120bovada 1.5-118draftkings 1.5-120williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-110bovada 1.5-112draftkings 1.5-112williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+179draftkings
under Best 1.5-242draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+220williamhill_us
Kyle Tucker
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+140fanatics
under Best 1.5-185fanatics
Hits
over Best 0.5-195draftkings
under Best 0.5+146draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
Max Muncy
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+120bovada 1.5+121draftkings 1.5+118williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-160bovada 1.5-162draftkings 1.5-157williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-197draftkings
under Best 0.5+147draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+290williamhill_us
Mookie Betts
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+120bovada 1.5+118draftkings 1.5+113williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-160bovada 1.5-157draftkings 1.5-150williamhill_us −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-242draftkings
under Best 0.5+179draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+425williamhill_us
Nick Fortes
Hits
over Best 0.5-167draftkings
under Best 0.5+125draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+700williamhill_us
Nick Martinez
Strikeouts
over Best 3.5-110bovada 3.5-104draftkings 3.5-105fanduel consensus 3.5
under Best 3.5-120bovada 3.5-122draftkings 3.5-115fanduel −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 3.5
Ryan Vilade
Hits
over Best 0.5-165draftkings
under Best 0.5+124draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+575williamhill_us
Ryan Ward
Hits
over Best 0.5-171draftkings
under Best 0.5+128draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Shohei Ohtani
Total Bases
over Best 1.5-115bovada 1.5-115draftkings 1.5-124williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-115bovada 1.5-116draftkings 1.5-107williamhill_us −1.8% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+189draftkings 1.5+180fanatics −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-256draftkings 1.5-245fanatics −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+210williamhill_us
Taylor Walls
Hits
over Best 0.5-114draftkings
under Best 0.5-117draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Yandy Diaz
Total Bases
over Best 1.5-105bovada 1.5-105draftkings 1.5-115williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-125bovada 1.5-126draftkings 1.5-115williamhill_us −2.1% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+167draftkings
under Best 1.5-225draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+350williamhill_us
The research behind this read
Every angle on this game is a historical pattern measured against ~20 books, with its real sample size shown — never a win probability. 2 angles cleared our bar for this matchup, the strongest on n=257.
We backtest every idea out-of-sample and publish the ones that fail, not just the ones that work — that filter is what makes a surviving signal worth your attention.
Every angle gets logged and tested — the misses too. See the full test-and-reject record in The Lab →