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CLE @ MIL
The Read The research is split on the total (1 over / 1 under). Strongest: American Family Field went over 54% historically (n=250). This is researched historical context to sharpen your own read — the market sees it too, so weigh it as input, not a settled edge.
↗ Share this read 4 active angles on this game · across every market
Moneyline 1
lean
MILMIL are 23-14 at home this season
Historical 62% · n=37
Total · Over / Under 2
moderate
overAmerican Family Field went over 54% historically (n=250)
Historical 54% · n=250
lean
underMIL have gone under in 7 of their last 10
Game context 1
lean
Roof closed — weather is a non-factor
Line shopping — best available price per side · 11 books tracked · not a pick
Total (O/U) · under Best: 8 -105 @ betus −17.5% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 3.5 (median across 11 books)
3.5-10000 betmgm 8-110 betonlineag 3.5-10000 betrivers 8-105 betus 3.5-220 bovada 3.5-8100 draftkings 3.5-5000 fanatics 3.5-7000 fanduel 8-107 lowvig 4-118 mybookieag 3.5-115 williamhill_us
Total (O/U) · over Best: 3.5 +1700 @ fanatics −32.2% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 3.5 (median across 11 books)
3.5+1450 betmgm 8-110 betonlineag 3.5+380 betrivers 8-115 betus 3.5+165 bovada 3.5+1200 draftkings 3.5+1700 fanatics 3.5+1280 fanduel 8-107 lowvig 4-118 mybookieag 3.5-115 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · under Best: 4.5 +100 @ betonlineag −2.4% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 2.5 (median across 7 books)
2.5-150 betmgm 4.5+100 betonlineag 4.5-110 betus 2.5-125 bovada 1.5+100 fanduel 4.5-105 mybookieag 1.5-174 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · over Best: 1.5 +126 @ williamhill_us −9.2% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 2.5 (median across 7 books)
2.5+110 betmgm 4.5-120 betonlineag 4.5-120 betus 2.5-105 bovada 1.5-132 fanduel 4.5-115 mybookieag 1.5+126 williamhill_us
Run line · home Best: -1.5 +900 @ draftkings −17.8% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: -1.5 (median across 11 books)
1.5-10000 betmgm -1.5+142 betonlineag -1.5+350 betrivers -1.5+140 betus -1-275 bovada -1.5+900 draftkings -1.5+900 fanatics -1.5+410 fanduel -1.5+143 lowvig -1.5+260 mybookieag -1.5+350 williamhill_us
Run line · away Best: -1.5 +3300 @ betmgm −77.1% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 11 books)
-1.5+3300 betmgm 1.5-162 betonlineag 1.5-1250 betrivers 1.5-160 betus 1+200 bovada 1.5-2800 draftkings 1.5-1800 fanatics 1.5-700 fanduel 1.5-162 lowvig 1.5-400 mybookieag 1.5-500 williamhill_us
Line shopping is market-neutral — no prediction implied. The best price reduces the vig you pay, regardless of outcome. Pregame prices captured at/before first pitch.
Research display — lines across books, not a pick. Best price highlighted per side. Line shopping reduces vig; no outcome is implied.
Angel Martinez
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+120bovada 1.5+119draftkings 1.5+115williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-160bovada 1.5-159draftkings 1.5-152williamhill_us −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-247draftkings
under Best 0.5+183draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Austin Hedges
Hits
over Best 0.5-117draftkings
under Best 0.5-113draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+750williamhill_us
Brayan Rocchio
Hits
over Best 0.5-167draftkings 0.5-180fanatics −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
under Best 0.5+125draftkings 0.5+135fanatics −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Brice Turang
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+110bovada 1.5+111draftkings 1.5+109williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-145bovada 1.5-148draftkings 1.5-145williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-247draftkings
under Best 0.5+182draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+370williamhill_us
Christian Yelich
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+130bovada 1.5+127draftkings 1.5+132williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-170bovada 1.5-170draftkings 1.5-176williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-237draftkings
under Best 0.5+175draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
Cooper Pratt
Hits
over Best 0.5-151draftkings
under Best 0.5+114draftkings
David Fry
Hits
over Best 0.5-137draftkings
under Best 0.5+103draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+425williamhill_us
David Hamilton
Hits
over Best 0.5-113draftkings
under Best 0.5-117draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Gabriel Arias
Hits
over Best 0.5-111draftkings
under Best 0.5-119draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+700williamhill_us
Garrett Mitchell
Hits
over Best 0.5-124draftkings
under Best 0.5-107draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Jackson Chourio
Total Bases
over Best 1.5-105bovada 1.5-106draftkings 1.5-107williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-125bovada 1.5-125draftkings 1.5-125williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+176draftkings
under Best 1.5-237draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+330williamhill_us
Jake Bauers
Hits
over Best 0.5-143draftkings
under Best 0.5+108draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Rhys Hoskins
Hits
over Best 0.5-151draftkings
under Best 0.5+114draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+320williamhill_us
Robert Gasser
Strikeouts
over Best 5.5+120bovada 5.5+127draftkings 4.5-160fanatics 5.5+126fanduel −0.8% implied prob vs median consensus 5.5
under Best 5.5-160bovada 5.5-163draftkings 4.5+120fanatics 5.5-154fanduel −15.6% implied prob vs median consensus 5.5
Sal Frelick
Hits
over Best 0.5-173draftkings
under Best 0.5+130draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Slade Cecconi
Strikeouts
over Best 4.5+105bovada 4.5+106draftkings 4.5+110fanduel −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
under Best 4.5-135bovada 4.5-135draftkings 4.5-134fanduel consensus 4.5
Steven Kwan
Hits
over Best 0.5-181draftkings
under Best 0.5+135draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Stuart Fairchild
Hits
over Best 0.5-131draftkings
under Best 0.5-101draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+700williamhill_us
Travis Bazzana
Total Bases
over Best 0.5-165fanatics
under Best 0.5+125fanatics
Hits
over Best 0.5-165draftkings
under Best 0.5+124draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+575williamhill_us
William Contreras
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+130bovada 1.5+129draftkings 1.5+126williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-170bovada 1.5-172draftkings 1.5-170williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-251draftkings
under Best 0.5+185draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
The research behind this read
Every angle on this game is a historical pattern measured against ~20 books, with its real sample size shown — never a win probability. 4 angles cleared our bar for this matchup, the strongest on n=250.
We backtest every idea out-of-sample and publish the ones that fail, not just the ones that work — that filter is what makes a surviving signal worth your attention.
Every angle gets logged and tested — the misses too. See the full test-and-reject record in The Lab →