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MIA @ PHI
The Read The research is split on the total (1 over / 0 under). Strongest: Citizens Bank Park went over 53% historically (n=250). This is researched historical context to sharpen your own read — the market sees it too, so weigh it as input, not a settled edge.
↗ Share this read 3 active angles on this game · across every market
Moneyline 2
lean
MIAMIA have won 7 of their last 10 (straight up)
lean
PHIMIA are 13-21 on the road this season
Historical 38% · n=34
Total · Over / Under 1
lean
overCitizens Bank Park went over 53% historically (n=250)
Historical 53% · n=250
Line shopping — best available price per side · 11 books tracked · not a pick
Total (O/U) · under Best: 8.5 -110 @ lowvig −20.3% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 10.5 (median across 11 books)
10.5-400 betmgm 8.5-113 betonlineag 10.5-625 betrivers 8.5-115 betus 10.5-375 bovada 10.5-266 draftkings 10.5-375 fanatics 10.5-380 fanduel 8.5-110 lowvig 10.5-125 mybookieag 10.5-115 williamhill_us
Total (O/U) · over Best: 10.5 +280 @ betmgm −7.5% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 10.5 (median across 11 books)
10.5+280 betmgm 8.5-107 betonlineag 10.5+250 betrivers 8.5-105 betus 10.5+260 bovada 10.5+196 draftkings 10.5+265 fanatics 10.5+260 fanduel 8.5-104 lowvig 10.5-111 mybookieag 10.5-115 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · over Best: 8.5 +108 @ williamhill_us −4.3% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 7.5 (median across 7 books)
8.5-118 betmgm 4.5+103 betonlineag 4.5-115 betus 8.5-110 bovada 7.5-130 fanduel 4.5-107 mybookieag 8.5+108 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · under Best: 7.5 -102 @ fanduel −3% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 7.5 (median across 7 books)
8.5-110 betmgm 4.5-123 betonlineag 4.5-115 betus 8.5-120 bovada 7.5-102 fanduel 4.5-113 mybookieag 8.5-148 williamhill_us
Run line · away Best: 5.5 +280 @ betmgm −7.5% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 5.5 (median across 11 books)
5.5+280 betmgm 1.5-140 betonlineag 5.5+265 betrivers 1.5-140 betus 6.5-165 bovada 5.5+196 draftkings 5.5+265 fanatics 5.5+260 fanduel 1.5-138 lowvig 6.5-400 mybookieag 5.5+230 williamhill_us
Run line · home Best: -6.5 +260 @ mybookieag −44.9% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: -5.5 (median across 11 books)
-5.5-400 betmgm -1.5+120 betonlineag -5.5-530 betrivers -1.5+120 betus -6.5+125 bovada -5.5-266 draftkings -5.5-375 fanatics -5.5-380 fanduel -1.5+122 lowvig -6.5+260 mybookieag -5.5-300 williamhill_us
Line shopping is market-neutral — no prediction implied. The best price reduces the vig you pay, regardless of outcome. Pregame prices captured at/before first pitch.
Research display — lines across books, not a pick. Best price highlighted per side. Line shopping reduces vig; no outcome is implied.
Alec Bohm
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+140bovada 1.5+137draftkings 1.5+131williamhill_us −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-185bovada 1.5-183draftkings 1.5-176williamhill_us −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-251draftkings
under Best 0.5+185draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+700williamhill_us
Brandon Marsh
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+130bovada 1.5+130draftkings 1.5+125williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-170bovada 1.5-174draftkings 1.5-170williamhill_us consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-235draftkings
under Best 0.5+174draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+575williamhill_us
Bryce Harper
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+125bovada 1.5+124draftkings 1.5+116williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-165bovada 1.5-165draftkings 1.5-154williamhill_us −1.6% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-227draftkings
under Best 0.5+168draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+370williamhill_us
Bryson Stott
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+135bovada 1.5+134draftkings 1.5+127williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-180bovada 1.5-179draftkings 1.5-170williamhill_us −1.2% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-215draftkings
under Best 0.5+159draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
Connor Norby
Hits
over Best 0.5-111draftkings
under Best 0.5-119draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Edmundo Sosa
Hits
over Best 0.5-198draftkings
under Best 0.5+148draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+750williamhill_us
Esteury Ruiz
Hits
over Best 0.5-112draftkings
under Best 0.5-118draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
Hits
over Best 0.5-161draftkings
under Best 0.5+121draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+750williamhill_us
Heriberto Hernandez
Hits
over Best 0.5-159draftkings
under Best 0.5+119draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+500williamhill_us
J.T. Realmuto
Hits
over Best 0.5-188draftkings
under Best 0.5+140draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+750williamhill_us
Javier Sanoja
Hits
over Best 0.5-207draftkings
under Best 0.5+154draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1100williamhill_us
Jesus Luzardo
Strikeouts
over Best 6.5-105bovada 6.5-103draftkings 6.5-105fanatics 6.5+100fanduel −1% implied prob vs median consensus 6.5
under Best 6.5-125bovada 6.5-124draftkings 6.5-125fanatics 6.5-122fanduel −0.5% implied prob vs median consensus 6.5
Joe Mack
Hits
over Best 0.5-109draftkings
under Best 0.5-121draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Justin Crawford
Hits
over Best 0.5-165draftkings
under Best 0.5+124draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Kyle Schwarber
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+110bovada 1.5+108draftkings 1.5+115fanatics 1.5+106williamhill_us −1.3% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-145bovada 1.5-144draftkings 1.5-150fanatics 1.5-141williamhill_us −0.6% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-198draftkings
under Best 0.5+147draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+210williamhill_us
Kyle Stowers
Hits
over Best 0.5-160draftkings
under Best 0.5+120draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+700williamhill_us
Leo Jimenez
Hits
over Best 0.5-131draftkings
under Best 0.5-102draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Liam Hicks
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1100williamhill_us
Otto Lopez
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+115bovada 1.5+115draftkings 1.5+114williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-150bovada 1.5-153draftkings 1.5-152williamhill_us −0.3% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 1.5+184draftkings
under Best 1.5-249draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+750williamhill_us
Tyler Phillips
Strikeouts
over Best 3.5-145bovada 3.5-138draftkings 3.5-138fanduel consensus 3.5
under Best 3.5+110bovada 3.5+109draftkings 3.5+112fanduel −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 3.5
Xavier Edwards
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+130bovada 1.5+131draftkings 1.5+128williamhill_us consensus 1.5
under Best 1.5-170bovada 1.5-175draftkings 1.5-173williamhill_us −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 1.5
Hits
over Best 0.5-272draftkings 0.5-250fanatics −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
under Best 0.5+200draftkings 0.5+185fanatics −0.9% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1100williamhill_us
The research behind this read
Every angle on this game is a historical pattern measured against ~20 books, with its real sample size shown — never a win probability. 3 angles cleared our bar for this matchup, the strongest on n=250.
We backtest every idea out-of-sample and publish the ones that fail, not just the ones that work — that filter is what makes a surviving signal worth your attention.
Every angle gets logged and tested — the misses too. See the full test-and-reject record in The Lab →