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SD @ STL
The Read The research is split on the total (1 over / 1 under). Strongest: Busch Stadium went over 52% historically (n=235). This is researched historical context to sharpen your own read — the market sees it too, so weigh it as input, not a settled edge.
↗ Share this read 3 active angles on this game · across every market
Moneyline 1
lean
STLSTL have won 7 of their last 10 (straight up)
Total · Over / Under 2
lean
overBusch Stadium went over 52% historically (n=235)
Historical 52% · n=235
lean
underSD have gone under in 7 of their last 10
Line shopping — best available price per side · 11 books tracked · not a pick
Total (O/U) · under Best: 8.5 -104 @ lowvig −9% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 5.5 (median across 11 books)
5.5-1200 betmgm 8.5-107 betonlineag 5.5-141 betrivers 8.5-105 betus 5.5-1200 bovada 5.5-1460 draftkings 5.5-1400 fanatics 5.5-2000 fanduel 8.5-104 lowvig 5.5-125 mybookieag 5.5-150 williamhill_us
Total (O/U) · over Best: 5.5 +750 @ fanatics −33.7% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 5.5 (median across 11 books)
5.5+650 betmgm 8.5-113 betonlineag 5.5+100 betrivers 8.5-115 betus 5.5+650 bovada 5.5+680 draftkings 5.5+750 fanatics 5.5+750 fanduel 8.5-110 lowvig 5.5-105 mybookieag 5.5+120 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · under Best: 4.5 +100 @ betonlineag −3.5% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 4.5 (median across 7 books)
4.5-800 betmgm 4.5+100 betonlineag 4.5-115 betus 3+100 bovada 2.5-112 fanduel 4.5-116 mybookieag 3.5-184 williamhill_us
First 5 (F5) · over Best: 4.5 +475 @ betmgm −36.1% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 4.5 (median across 7 books)
4.5+475 betmgm 4.5-120 betonlineag 4.5-115 betus 3-130 bovada 2.5-118 fanduel 4.5-105 mybookieag 3.5+133 williamhill_us
Run line · away Best: -1.5 +2000 @ betmgm −61.9% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: 1.5 (median across 11 books)
-1.5+2000 betmgm 1.5-200 betonlineag 1.5-480 betrivers 1.5-200 betus 1+125 bovada 1.5-750 draftkings 1.5-400 fanatics 1.5-700 fanduel 1.5-200 lowvig -1.5+950 mybookieag 1.5-500 williamhill_us
Run line · home Best: -1.5 +450 @ draftkings −18.2% implied prob vs median
Consensus line: -1.5 (median across 11 books)
1.5-10000 betmgm -1.5+174 betonlineag -1.5+255 betrivers -1.5+172 betus -1-165 bovada -1.5+450 draftkings -1.5+280 fanatics -1.5+410 fanduel -1.5+175 lowvig 1.5-5000 mybookieag -1.5+350 williamhill_us
Line shopping is market-neutral — no prediction implied. The best price reduces the vig you pay, regardless of outcome. Pregame prices captured at/before first pitch.
Research display — lines across books, not a pick. Best price highlighted per side. Line shopping reduces vig; no outcome is implied.
Alec Burleson
Hits
over Best 0.5-261draftkings
under Best 0.5+192draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+475williamhill_us
Andre Pallante
Strikeouts
over Best 3.5-130bovada 3.5-138draftkings 3.5-140fanatics 3.5-128fanduel −1.1% implied prob vs median consensus 3.5
under Best 3.5+100bovada 3.5+108draftkings 3.5+105fanatics 3.5+104fanduel −0.8% implied prob vs median consensus 3.5
Blaze Jordan
Hits
over Best 0.5-164draftkings
under Best 0.5+123draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Bryan Torres
Hits
over Best 0.5-162draftkings
under Best 0.5+122draftkings
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Hits
over Best 1.5+157draftkings
under Best 1.5-211draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+425williamhill_us
Gavin Sheets
Hits
over Best 0.5-203draftkings
under Best 0.5+152draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+625williamhill_us
Ivan Herrera
Hits
over Best 0.5-221draftkings
under Best 0.5+164draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+750williamhill_us
Jackson Merrill
Hits
over Best 0.5-265draftkings
under Best 0.5+195draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
Jase Bowen
Hits
over Best 0.5-157draftkings
under Best 0.5+118draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1100williamhill_us
JJ Wetherholt
Hits
over Best 0.5-217draftkings
under Best 0.5+161draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
Jordan Walker
Hits
over Best 0.5-236draftkings 0.5-220fanatics −0.8% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
under Best 0.5+175draftkings 0.5+165fanatics −0.7% implied prob vs median consensus 0.5
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+425williamhill_us
Lars Nootbaar
Hits
over Best 0.5-153draftkings
under Best 0.5+115draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
Manny Machado
Total Bases
over Best 1.5+122williamhill_us
under Best 1.5-164williamhill_us
Hits
over Best 0.5-208draftkings
under Best 0.5+155draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+525williamhill_us
Masyn Winn
Hits
over Best 0.5-185draftkings
under Best 0.5+139draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Michael King
Strikeouts
over Best 4.5+105bovada 4.5+103draftkings 4.5+106fanduel consensus 4.5
under Best 4.5-135bovada 4.5-132draftkings 4.5-130fanduel −0.4% implied prob vs median consensus 4.5
Nathan Church
Total Bases
over Best 0.5-130fanatics
under Best 0.5+100fanatics
Hits
over Best 0.5-130draftkings
under Best 0.5-102draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+850williamhill_us
Rodolfo Duran
Hits
over Best 0.5-132draftkings
under Best 0.5+100draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
Samad Taylor
Hits
over Best 0.5-156draftkings
under Best 0.5+117draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1100williamhill_us
Will Wagner
Hits
over Best 0.5-152draftkings
under Best 0.5+114draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+1300williamhill_us
Xander Bogaerts
Hits
over Best 0.5-242draftkings
under Best 0.5+179draftkings
Home Runs
over Best 0.5+950williamhill_us
The research behind this read
Every angle on this game is a historical pattern measured against ~20 books, with its real sample size shown — never a win probability. 3 angles cleared our bar for this matchup, the strongest on n=235.
We backtest every idea out-of-sample and publish the ones that fail, not just the ones that work — that filter is what makes a surviving signal worth your attention.
Every angle gets logged and tested — the misses too. See the full test-and-reject record in The Lab →