The talent a roster signed vs what it did.
Every FBS team's recruiting talent (the 4-year composite, and its national rank that season) lined up against its actual record. The gap is the story · who outran the roster they had, and who left blue-chip talent on the field. National rank, record, and the sample behind each, on every team.
Talent is a leading indicator and records drift back toward the roster. In our point-in-time test (2020·2025, n>150 each side), teams that outran their recruiting talent fell about 15 win-percentage points the next season, and the ones that underachieved rose about as much. So these gaps tend to close next year. That is a direction the data leans, not a guaranteed pick and not a bet.
| Team | Talent rank | Composite | Record | Win% | Gap (pts) ▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw StateC-USA | #137 / 137 | 53.1 | 10-3 (13g) | 77% | +77 |
| New MexicoMountain West | #135 / 137 | 55.7 | 9-3 (12g) | 75% | +74 |
| James MadisonSun Belt | #106 / 137 | 61.9 | 12-1 (13g) | 92% | +70 |
| Old DominionSun Belt | #128 / 137 | 58.6 | 9-3 (12g) | 75% | +68 |
| NavyAAC | #116 / 137 | 60.9 | 10-2 (12g) | 83% | +68 |
| Fresno StatePac-12 | #132 / 137 | 56.3 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +63 |
| San Diego StatePac-12 | #120 / 137 | 60.5 | 9-3 (12g) | 75% | +63 |
| Western MichiganMAC | #114 / 137 | 61.1 | 9-4 (13g) | 69% | +52 |
| North TexasAAC | #93 / 137 | 63.2 | 11-2 (13g) | 85% | +52 |
| UNLVMountain West | #103 / 137 | 62.2 | 10-3 (13g) | 77% | +52 |
| DelawareC-USA | #134 / 137 | 56.0 | 6-6 (12g) | 50% | +48 |
| TroySun Belt | #117 / 137 | 60.7 | 8-5 (13g) | 62% | +47 |
| Central MichiganMAC | #121 / 137 | 60.3 | 7-5 (12g) | 58% | +47 |
| Louisiana TechC-USA | #119 / 137 | 60.5 | 7-5 (12g) | 58% | +45 |
| IndianaBig Ten | #57 / 137 | 68.8 | 13-0 (13g) | 100% | +41 |
| Florida InternationalC-USA | #113 / 137 | 61.1 | 7-5 (12g) | 58% | +41 |
| Georgia SouthernSun Belt | #124 / 137 | 59.8 | 6-6 (12g) | 50% | +40 |
| ArmyAAC | #123 / 137 | 60.1 | 6-6 (12g) | 50% | +40 |
| VirginiaACC | #86 / 137 | 64.1 | 10-3 (13g) | 77% | +39 |
| Boise StatePac-12 | #95 / 137 | 63.0 | 9-4 (13g) | 69% | +38 |
| BYUBig 12 | #73 / 137 | 66.5 | 11-2 (13g) | 85% | +38 |
| Western KentuckyC-USA | #90 / 137 | 63.8 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +32 |
| UtahBig 12 | #66 / 137 | 67.6 | 10-2 (12g) | 83% | +31 |
| Kent StateMAC | #122 / 137 | 60.1 | 5-7 (12g) | 42% | +31 |
| New Mexico StateC-USA | #133 / 137 | 56.2 | 4-8 (12g) | 33% | +30 |
| TulaneAAC | #63 / 137 | 67.9 | 11-2 (13g) | 85% | +30 |
| Coastal CarolinaSun Belt | #110 / 137 | 61.2 | 6-6 (12g) | 50% | +30 |
| IllinoisBig Ten | #87 / 137 | 64.0 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +30 |
| Missouri StateC-USA | #98 / 137 | 62.9 | 7-5 (12g) | 58% | +30 |
| Utah StatePac-12 | #108 / 137 | 61.8 | 6-6 (12g) | 50% | +29 |
| Arkansas StateSun Belt | #107 / 137 | 61.9 | 6-6 (12g) | 50% | +28 |
| Jacksonville StateC-USA | #91 / 137 | 63.4 | 8-5 (13g) | 62% | +28 |
| Texas StateSun Belt | #105 / 137 | 62.1 | 6-6 (12g) | 50% | +26 |
| Air ForceMountain West | #125 / 137 | 59.7 | 4-8 (12g) | 33% | +25 |
| UConnIndependent | #68 / 137 | 67.4 | 9-3 (12g) | 75% | +24 |
| East CarolinaAAC | #78 / 137 | 65.8 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +23 |
| OhioMAC | #76 / 137 | 66.2 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +22 |
| RiceAAC | #109 / 137 | 61.5 | 5-7 (12g) | 42% | +21 |
| Wake ForestACC | #74 / 137 | 66.3 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +20 |
| Texas TechBig 12 | #38 / 137 | 70.8 | 12-1 (13g) | 92% | +20 |
| South FloridaAAC | #60 / 137 | 68.3 | 9-3 (12g) | 75% | +18 |
| MemphisAAC | #71 / 137 | 66.7 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +18 |
| BuffaloMAC | #104 / 137 | 62.1 | 5-7 (12g) | 42% | +17 |
| AkronMAC | #101 / 137 | 62.7 | 5-7 (12g) | 42% | +15 |
| Bowling GreenMAC | #111 / 137 | 61.2 | 4-8 (12g) | 33% | +14 |
| ArizonaBig 12 | #54 / 137 | 69.0 | 9-3 (12g) | 75% | +14 |
| Washington StatePac-12 | #88 / 137 | 63.9 | 6-6 (12g) | 50% | +14 |
| TempleAAC | #99 / 137 | 62.8 | 5-7 (12g) | 42% | +14 |
| TennesseeSEC | #64 / 137 | 67.9 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +13 |
| UTEPMountain West | #131 / 137 | 56.7 | 2-10 (12g) | 17% | +12 |
| Sam HoustonC-USA | #130 / 137 | 57.7 | 2-10 (12g) | 17% | +12 |
| Arizona StateBig 12 | #62 / 137 | 68.1 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +12 |
| Northern IllinoisMountain West | #118 / 137 | 60.7 | 3-9 (12g) | 25% | +11 |
| Southern MissSun Belt | #72 / 137 | 66.5 | 7-5 (12g) | 58% | +11 |
| ToledoMAC | #59 / 137 | 68.7 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +9 |
| NC StateACC | #69 / 137 | 67.0 | 7-5 (12g) | 58% | +8 |
| UTSAAAC | #80 / 137 | 65.5 | 6-6 (12g) | 50% | +8 |
| VanderbiltSEC | #34 / 137 | 71.2 | 10-2 (12g) | 83% | +8 |
| NevadaMountain West | #112 / 137 | 61.2 | 3-9 (12g) | 25% | +7 |
| Ball StateMAC | #100 / 137 | 62.8 | 4-8 (12g) | 33% | +6 |
| CincinnatiBig 12 | #65 / 137 | 67.9 | 7-5 (12g) | 58% | +5 |
| PittsburghACC | #52 / 137 | 69.4 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +4 |
| Eastern MichiganMAC | #97 / 137 | 62.9 | 4-8 (12g) | 33% | +4 |
| Iowa StateBig 12 | #50 / 137 | 69.5 | 8-4 (12g) | 67% | +3 |
| Ole MissSEC | #16 / 137 | 75.8 | 11-1 (12g) | 92% | +3 |
| OregonBig Ten | #15 / 137 | 76.2 | 11-1 (12g) | 92% | +2 |
| WyomingMountain West | #94 / 137 | 63.1 | 4-8 (12g) | 33% | +2 |
| Georgia TechACC | #36 / 137 | 70.9 | 9-3 (12g) | 75% | +1 |
This is talent intelligence, not a betting edge. The recruiting composite does not beat the spread · we tested it and it lands near a coin flip against the number in every bucket. What it does do is show where a roster's talent and its record pulled apart, and that gap tends to regress. Every number ships with its sample (games behind the record, programs behind the rank). Research, not advice.