Expected value (EV)
Expected value is the long-run average return per bet if your win probability is right. Enter your honest win probability (your read, not the book's implied number) and the price you can actually get. Example: a CFB dog at +140 breaks even at 41.7 percent, so a 45 percent read on it is positive EV. It says nothing about any single bet.
b = decimal − 1 · EV per $1 = p·b − (1 − p) · break-even p = 1/decimal
EV is only as honest as your probability. The book's de-vigged fair number is a sober starting point. If your edge comes from rounding your own estimate up, the EV is fiction.
Market-neutral utility. It computes numbers you supply, it does not predict outcomes or guarantee profit. Compare lines across books and make the call yourself. 21+ · research, not advice.